Here, “best AI model” is not a general expert judgment: it means the model in first place on arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the leaderboard is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. This selection has separate contracts for Anthropic, Meta, Google, Alibaba, Moonshot, and OpenAI; it does not cover every possible company.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Trading open
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Trading open
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Trading open
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Trading open
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Trading open
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
45.5%
7 days+6 pp
30 days-22.5 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 11, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 45.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Yes45.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No54.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 1, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The result is based on the company whose model ranks first on arena.ai Text Arena | Overall when the Leaderboard tab is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules use the Rank column, style control off with no adjustments, and the Models filter; models marked AutoEval at the check time are excluded. Tied ranks are broken by Arena score, including exact unrounded values; any remaining tie is broken alphabetically by the company names in the group. If the source is temporarily unavailable, the market stays open until it returns and resolves on the first subsequent check; if it becomes permanently unavailable, the overall result is Other.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The result is based on the company whose model ranks first on arena.ai Text Arena | Overall when the Leaderboard tab is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules use the Rank column, style control off with no adjustments, and the Models filter; models marked AutoEval at the check time are excluded. Tied ranks are broken by Arena score, including exact unrounded values; any remaining tie is broken alphabetically by the company names in the group. If the source is temporarily unavailable, the market stays open until it returns and resolves on the first subsequent check; if it becomes permanently unavailable, the overall result is Other.
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Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Yes2.2%Bid/ask midpoint
No97.8%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 1, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The result is based on the company whose model ranks first on arena.ai Text Arena | Overall when the Leaderboard tab is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules use the Rank column, style control off with no adjustments, and the Models filter; models marked AutoEval at the check time are excluded. Tied ranks are broken by Arena score, including exact unrounded values; any remaining tie is broken alphabetically by the company names in the group. If the source is temporarily unavailable, the market stays open until it returns and resolves on the first subsequent check; if it becomes permanently unavailable, the overall result is Other.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Yes45%Bid/ask midpoint
No55%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 1, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The result is based on the company whose model ranks first on arena.ai Text Arena | Overall when the Leaderboard tab is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules use the Rank column, style control off with no adjustments, and the Models filter; models marked AutoEval at the check time are excluded. Tied ranks are broken by Arena score, including exact unrounded values; any remaining tie is broken alphabetically by the company names in the group. If the source is temporarily unavailable, the market stays open until it returns and resolves on the first subsequent check; if it becomes permanently unavailable, the overall result is Other.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Yes0.9%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.2%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 1, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The result is based on the company whose model ranks first on arena.ai Text Arena | Overall when the Leaderboard tab is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules use the Rank column, style control off with no adjustments, and the Models filter; models marked AutoEval at the check time are excluded. Tied ranks are broken by Arena score, including exact unrounded values; any remaining tie is broken alphabetically by the company names in the group. If the source is temporarily unavailable, the market stays open until it returns and resolves on the first subsequent check; if it becomes permanently unavailable, the overall result is Other.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Yes0.7%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.3%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 1, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The result is based on the company whose model ranks first on arena.ai Text Arena | Overall when the Leaderboard tab is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules use the Rank column, style control off with no adjustments, and the Models filter; models marked AutoEval at the check time are excluded. Tied ranks are broken by Arena score, including exact unrounded values; any remaining tie is broken alphabetically by the company names in the group. If the source is temporarily unavailable, the market stays open until it returns and resolves on the first subsequent check; if it becomes permanently unavailable, the overall result is Other.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Yes4.8%Bid/ask midpoint
No95.2%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 1, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The result is based on the company whose model ranks first on arena.ai Text Arena | Overall when the Leaderboard tab is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules use the Rank column, style control off with no adjustments, and the Models filter; models marked AutoEval at the check time are excluded. Tied ranks are broken by Arena score, including exact unrounded values; any remaining tie is broken alphabetically by the company names in the group. If the source is temporarily unavailable, the market stays open until it returns and resolves on the first subsequent check; if it becomes permanently unavailable, the overall result is Other.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
39.5%
-3 pp · 7 days
Event volume $2.6M
Dec 31, 2026
STALE
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POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
Which leaderboard determines the result
The check uses the Leaderboard tab, Text Arena | Overall, the Rank column, style control off with no adjustments, and the Models filter. The relevant snapshot is the table at the specified check time, not a later leaderboard change.
Models marked AutoEval at the check time are excluded, even if a rank or score is displayed for them. The rule depends on the model’s designation at the time of the check.
What Yes and No mean in the selected contracts
Yes for a company’s contract means a model owned by that company ranks first after the stated ranking rules are applied. For example, Anthropic Yes requires an Anthropic model to finish first; the same criterion applies separately to Meta, Google, Alibaba, Moonshot, and OpenAI.
No means that company does not rank first under those rules. All six contracts use the same single-winning-company ranking, including its tiebreakers, so at most one selected company can qualify for Yes. However, the selection does not cover every possible winner: none of these six companies is required to win.
Ties and the fallback resolution process
The primary comparison is leaderboard rank. If models tie on rank, the higher Arena score takes precedence, including underlying unrounded granular values. If they remain tied, the final tiebreaker is alphabetical order of the company names listed in this market group.
The resolution source is arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If it is unavailable at the check time, the market remains open until the leaderboard returns and resolves on the first check afterward. If the source becomes permanently unavailable, the overall result is Other.
The check time is not the same as resolution
The specified time sets when the ranking is checked, but reaching that date or closing a market does not by itself establish that it has resolved. The contract rules and the market’s resolution state are distinct.
