Two selected ranges cover 5–6 and 7–8 Starship launches. The event counts reaching a stated altitude, rather than successful landings or the absence of a later anomaly.
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
34.5%
7 days-13 pp
30 days-10.5 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 9, 2026 — Oct 16, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Yes34.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No65.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Counted launches run from January 1 through 23:59 ET on December 31 and require Starship to take off and reach at least 62 miles above sea level. A subsequent anomaly does not exclude the launch. SpaceX's official video is primary; other footage, written reports and a credible reporting consensus may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Yes1.2%Bid/ask midpoint
No98.8%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Counted launches run from January 1 through 23:59 ET on December 31 and require Starship to take off and reach at least 62 miles above sea level. A subsequent anomaly does not exclude the launch. SpaceX's official video is primary; other footage, written reports and a credible reporting consensus may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Counted launches run from January 1 through 23:59 ET on December 31 and require Starship to take off and reach at least 62 miles above sea level. A subsequent anomaly does not exclude the launch. SpaceX's official video is primary; other footage, written reports and a credible reporting consensus may also be used.
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