Google, Anthropic and OpenAI contracts use a specified Chatbot Arena ranking. Here, best means first under the event's settlement rules; it is not a claim about performance on every task or a product-quality guarantee.
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
39.5%
7 days-3 pp
30 days+30 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 9, 2026 — Oct 16, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Yes39.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No60.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 05:00:00 PM UTC
The text leaderboard is checked at 12:00 ET on December 31 with style control off. Equal ranks are broken by the exact Arena score, then by alphabetical company name. A temporary outage delays settlement until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability allows another source.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Yes45.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No54.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 05:00:00 PM UTC
The text leaderboard is checked at 12:00 ET on December 31 with style control off. Equal ranks are broken by the exact Arena score, then by alphabetical company name. A temporary outage delays settlement until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability allows another source.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Yes8.3%Bid/ask midpoint
No91.8%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 05:00:00 PM UTC
The text leaderboard is checked at 12:00 ET on December 31 with style control off. Equal ranks are broken by the exact Arena score, then by alphabetical company name. A temporary outage delays settlement until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability allows another source.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The text leaderboard is checked at 12:00 ET on December 31 with style control off. Equal ranks are broken by the exact Arena score, then by alphabetical company name. A temporary outage delays settlement until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability allows another source.
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