Contracts cover docking by the end of 2026 and 2027. The condition requires physically joining two free-flying vessels, rather than proximity or fuel transfer without docking.
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
2.8%
7 days-0.1 pp
30 days-0.5 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 9, 2026 — Oct 16, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?
Yes2.8%Bid/ask midpoint
No97.3%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Two SpaceX integrated rocket-and-spacecraft vessels at least Starship-sized must physically join via mating hardware for 60 continuous seconds in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 km. They must be free-flying and match velocity; passive placement into an interface does not qualify. The deadline is 23:59 ET on the listed date; a credible reporting consensus is the source.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?
Yes62%Bid/ask midpoint
No38%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2028, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Two SpaceX integrated rocket-and-spacecraft vessels at least Starship-sized must physically join via mating hardware for 60 continuous seconds in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 km. They must be free-flying and match velocity; passive placement into an interface does not qualify. The deadline is 23:59 ET on the listed date; a credible reporting consensus is the source.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Two SpaceX integrated rocket-and-spacecraft vessels at least Starship-sized must physically join via mating hardware for 60 continuous seconds in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 km. They must be free-flying and match velocity; passive placement into an interface does not qualify. The deadline is 23:59 ET on the listed date; a credible reporting consensus is the source.
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