ODDSATLAS / FIELD GUIDE
Polymarket, from the first question to the fine print.
How prediction markets work, what a price means, and which rules matter. Choose a question for a clear explanation and practical context.
01 / Start with the basics
Understand Polymarket, implied probability and transaction costs before exploring individual events.
What is Polymarket?
Understand the prediction market platform, what its percentages mean and how OddsAtlas helps you interpret events.
Read the guideHow does Polymarket work?
Events, contracts and outcomes: understand the relationship between positions, orders and confirmed results.
Read the guidePolymarket probabilities and odds
Read market percentages, convert them to decimal odds and distinguish probability changes from investment returns.
Read the guidePolymarket fees: how to read the calculation
The current taker fee formula, a worked example and the difference between fees, spreads and third-party costs.
Read the guidePrediction markets vs bookmakers: what to compare
Compare price formation, outcome rules and costs. Equal-looking odds do not make two offers equivalent.
Read the guideHow to buy shares on Polymarket
Understand buying Yes or No shares on Polymarket: identify the contract, calculate quantity and cost, and distinguish an order from a confirmed position.
Read the guideHow to sell Polymarket shares before resolution
Understand selling Polymarket shares before resolution: available buyers, partial fills, remaining exposure and proceeds versus acquisition cost.
Read the guidePolymarket Yes and No shares explained
Understand Polymarket Yes and No shares, negative question wording, complete outcome sets and why related markets are not automatically complements.
Read the guidePolymarket deposits: assets, networks and transfer status
Understand Polymarket deposit requirements: product availability, pUSD, supported network and token, current minimums, bridge estimates and receipt confirmation.
Read the guidePolymarket withdrawals: balance, destination and confirmation
Understand a Polymarket withdrawal: available balance after sale or redemption, supported destination network and asset, recipient checks, estimates and receipt status.
Read the guide02 / Crypto
Bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto events: precise conditions matter more than a broad price narrative.
How to read Bitcoin probabilities on Polymarket
Read BTC markets by checking threshold touches, timed prices, resolution sources and overlapping conditions.
Read the guideEthereum on Polymarket: prices and network events
Distinguish ETH price contracts from questions about network upgrades, releases and other Ethereum events.
Read the guideCrypto prediction markets: how to read the questions
Separate price thresholds, short intervals, releases and regulatory events without mixing their outcomes.
Read the guideBitcoin thresholds on Polymarket: a touch or a closing price?
Read BTC above-price contracts: touches, ending values, strict inequalities and nested thresholds, with clear examples rather than price targets.
Read the guidePolymarket Up/Down: how the price direction is determined
Understand Price to Beat in crypto Up/Down markets: starting and final values, Chainlink TWAP, equality and distinct observation windows.
Read the guideWhich crypto price source determines a Polymarket result?
Why Binance, Chainlink and an app quote can differ: asset pairs, High versus Close, TWAP and the designated crypto resolution source.
Read the guidePolymarket crypto deadlines: time zones, cutoffs and resolution
Check a BTC or ETH contract’s cutoff: ET versus UTC, observation boundaries, API dates and the separate confirmation of resolution.
Read the guide03 / Sports
Compare match and tournament questions, account for draws and check timing.
Polymarket sports markets: how to compare outcomes
A win, a draw, qualification and a title are different questions. Check match timing, cancellations and original rules.
Read the guidePolymarket match winner: how to read a moneyline market
Understand sports moneylines: team wins, regulation time, draws and qualification. Compare prices only when the underlying conditions match.
Read the guideA draw on Polymarket: what No means in a team-win market
Account for a draw in soccer markets: Yes/No, three outcomes, regulation time and qualification on penalties, without assuming bookmaker rules.
Read the guidePolymarket overtime and penalties: do they count for resolution?
Regulation, stoppage time and extra periods in sports contracts. Check overtime and shootouts separately for winner and total markets.
Read the guideA postponed or canceled match: reading Polymarket rules
Check postponement, cancellation and unfinished-game clauses: waiting periods, 50-50, No or Other depend on the particular market’s terms.
Read the guidePolymarket tournament winner: how to read a championship market
Separate a tournament title from a match win or qualification: entrants, elimination, Other, tied results and the champion-announcement deadline.
Read the guidePolymarket totals: how to read Over/Under and the threshold
Check a sports total: combined or team score, integer or fractional threshold, period, overtime and cancellation. Read beyond the line label.
Read the guide04 / Economy
Fed decisions, inflation and recession: distinguish the measure, observation period and exact resolution condition.
A Fed decision on Polymarket: reading the FOMC rate step
Read a Fed decision market: the specific FOMC meeting, upper rate bound, basis points, a hold and the contract's rounding rule.
Read the guideHow many Fed rate cuts: how Polymarket counts cuts
Fed cut counts and meeting counts differ. Check 25 bp units, emergency decisions, the observation period and the difference from the final rate.
Read the guideThe year-end Fed rate: range versus upper bound on Polymarket
Read the final Fed rate: target range, upper bound, post-meeting observation, categories and the difference from cut counts or level touches.
Read the guideCPI inflation on Polymarket: YoY, MoM, headline and core
Read US inflation markets: CPI-U, monthly versus annual change, headline versus core, seasonal adjustment, threshold precision and BLS revisions.
Read the guideRecession on Polymarket: GDP criteria, NBER and announcement dates
Read a US recession market: two GDP quarters differ from NBER's criteria. Check the period, announcement date, data vintages and clarifications.
Read the guideWhen economic data is released: timing Polymarket markets
Check CPI, GDP and FOMC calendars: reference period, ET release time, publication date, estimate vintages and contract-defined delay handling.
Read the guide05 / Rules and limitations
Resolution, risk and availability are separate questions that a percentage cannot answer.
Polymarket rules and market resolution
Understand what determines YES/NO, why sources and deadlines matter and why closed does not always mean resolved.
Read the guidePrediction market risks: what a percentage cannot tell you
Understand outcome, rule, stale-data and technical risks without promises of returns.
Read the guidePolymarket availability by country
Why language and a working API do not establish trading eligibility. Check international and US products separately.
Read the guidePolymarket liquidity: volume versus order-book depth
Read Polymarket liquidity using current depth and order size. Distinguish historical trading volume from the quantity available at a price right now.
Read the guidePolymarket spread explained: bid, ask and displayed price
Understand the Polymarket bid-ask spread, midpoint versus executable prices, percentage points and why the spread is distinct from trading fees.
Read the guideHow to read the Polymarket order book
Read the Polymarket order book step by step: bids, asks, level quantities, cumulative depth and a worked average-price example.
Read the guidePolymarket limit orders: price, expiry and fills
Understand Polymarket limit orders, GTC versus GTD, post-only behavior, partial fills and why a price limit cannot guarantee execution.
Read the guidePolymarket market orders: FAK, FOK and slippage
Understand Polymarket market orders: immediate matching, FAK versus FOK, price protection, size-dependent prices and buy amounts versus sell quantities.
Read the guidePolymarket payouts: settlement and share redemption
Calculate Polymarket payouts after resolution: shares and recorded redemption value, split-payout exceptions, expenses and payout versus profit or withdrawal.
Read the guidePolymarket market status: active, closed and resolved
Distinguish Polymarket market states: discoverable records, order acceptance, trading closure, confirmed resolution and independently measured data freshness.
Read the guidePolymarket disputes: proposals and challenged resolutions
Understand disputed Polymarket resolutions: proposed versus final outcomes, the UMA challenge period, evidence and why deadlines do not guarantee finality.
Read the guidePolymarket price history: reading probability charts
Read Polymarket historical prices using outcome IDs, capture times, sampling intervals and missing observations. Distinguish probability moves from asset-price charts.
Read the guidePolymarket versus polls: why the percentages are different
How a market probability differs from a poll response share: question wording, sample, observation time and evaluating forecast accuracy.
Read the guidePolymarket trading volume: what Volume does and does not show
Distinguish trading volume from liquidity and participant counts: 24-hour periods, event totals, order books and the limits of market signals.
Read the guide