The year-end Fed rate: range versus upper bound on Polymarket

The checked final-level market uses the upper bound of the target federal funds range. Do not substitute its midpoint, lower bound or an observed rate from another series. A similar metric name does not establish an equivalent contract measurement.

Illustrative example: a 3.50–3.75% range has an upper bound of 3.75% and a midpoint of 3.625%. Only the specified quantity is compared with an option. These numbers do not report the current rate.

The reviewed 2026 contract targets the level after the December meeting and separately handles an absent decision by its cutoff. It is not automatically a question about touching any level during the year or about the latest available market snapshot.

Keep the scheduled date, actual statement and fallback condition separately. If an exceptional clause changes the observation, the contract's timing follows its rules rather than the broad page heading.

A single-level option and an at-least category cover different values. The reviewed market has 25 bp rounding and a separate midpoint rule. This differs from rounding the size of an individual decision's change.

Record the sign, boundary inclusion and precision before comparing. Do not allocate a value using a rounded headline alone. If the options are incomplete or Additional context appears, inspect the current full terms.

Different sequences of increases and cuts can produce the same ending level. A final-category percentage does not identify the number of decisions, first-cut date or path within the year. Those require distinct questions with their own conditions and horizons.

To check the result, locate the designated Federal Reserve record and confirmed resolution. A forecaster survey or probability chart helps study expectations without itself establishing the final target-range level.