Yes in each selected contract requires an exact match to its sequence of upper-bound rate changes at the October, December and January FOMC meetings. Any cut at these meetings means No for all six selected sequences and falls under Other at event level; emergency changes outside scheduled meetings are excluded.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Trading open
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Trading open
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Trading open
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Trading open
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Trading open
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Market estimate / Yes
1.7%
7 days-2.3 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 12, 2026 — Oct 19, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 1.7%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Yes1.7%Bid/ask midpoint
No98.4%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 27, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The October 27–28, December 8–9 and January 26–27 FOMC decisions are assessed using the upper bound of the federal funds target range relative to its pre-meeting level: higher is a hike, equal is a pause and lower is a cut. Yes requires an exact match to the selected contract’s sequence; otherwise it is No. Any cut means No for all six selected contracts and Other at event level. Other also covers combinations not listed in the event, not merely those absent from this selection. Emergency changes outside scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statement after its meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Yes2.4%Bid/ask midpoint
No97.6%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 27, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The October 27–28, December 8–9 and January 26–27 FOMC decisions are assessed using the upper bound of the federal funds target range relative to its pre-meeting level: higher is a hike, equal is a pause and lower is a cut. Yes requires an exact match to the selected contract’s sequence; otherwise it is No. Any cut means No for all six selected contracts and Other at event level. Other also covers combinations not listed in the event, not merely those absent from this selection. Emergency changes outside scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statement after its meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Yes7.4%Bid/ask midpoint
No92.6%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 27, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The October 27–28, December 8–9 and January 26–27 FOMC decisions are assessed using the upper bound of the federal funds target range relative to its pre-meeting level: higher is a hike, equal is a pause and lower is a cut. Yes requires an exact match to the selected contract’s sequence; otherwise it is No. Any cut means No for all six selected contracts and Other at event level. Other also covers combinations not listed in the event, not merely those absent from this selection. Emergency changes outside scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statement after its meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Yes6.3%Bid/ask midpoint
No93.8%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 27, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The October 27–28, December 8–9 and January 26–27 FOMC decisions are assessed using the upper bound of the federal funds target range relative to its pre-meeting level: higher is a hike, equal is a pause and lower is a cut. Yes requires an exact match to the selected contract’s sequence; otherwise it is No. Any cut means No for all six selected contracts and Other at event level. Other also covers combinations not listed in the event, not merely those absent from this selection. Emergency changes outside scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statement after its meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Yes2.9%Bid/ask midpoint
No97.2%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 27, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The October 27–28, December 8–9 and January 26–27 FOMC decisions are assessed using the upper bound of the federal funds target range relative to its pre-meeting level: higher is a hike, equal is a pause and lower is a cut. Yes requires an exact match to the selected contract’s sequence; otherwise it is No. Any cut means No for all six selected contracts and Other at event level. Other also covers combinations not listed in the event, not merely those absent from this selection. Emergency changes outside scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statement after its meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Yes8.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No91.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 27, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The October 27–28, December 8–9 and January 26–27 FOMC decisions are assessed using the upper bound of the federal funds target range relative to its pre-meeting level: higher is a hike, equal is a pause and lower is a cut. Yes requires an exact match to the selected contract’s sequence; otherwise it is No. Any cut means No for all six selected contracts and Other at event level. Other also covers combinations not listed in the event, not merely those absent from this selection. Emergency changes outside scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statement after its meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The October 27–28, December 8–9 and January 26–27 FOMC decisions are assessed using the upper bound of the federal funds target range relative to its pre-meeting level: higher is a hike, equal is a pause and lower is a cut. Yes requires an exact match to the selected contract’s sequence; otherwise it is No. Any cut means No for all six selected contracts and Other at event level. Other also covers combinations not listed in the event, not merely those absent from this selection. Emergency changes outside scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statement after its meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
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Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
The upper bound rises in October, is unchanged in December and rises in January. Each comparison is with the level before that scheduled meeting; emergency changes outside those meetings are excluded.
At least one step differs from this sequence. Any cut at the specified meetings also means No; it falls under Other at event level.
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
The upper bound rises in October and is unchanged in December and January. Each comparison is with the level before that scheduled meeting; emergency changes outside those meetings are excluded.
At least one step differs from this sequence. Any cut at the specified meetings also means No; it falls under Other at event level.
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
The upper bound rises in October, December and January. Each comparison is with the level before that scheduled meeting; emergency changes outside those meetings are excluded.
At least one specified meeting produces a pause or cut rather than a hike. A cut means No for the contract and Other at event level.
Will the Fed Hike-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
The upper bound rises in October and December, then is unchanged in January. Each comparison is with the level before that scheduled meeting; emergency changes outside those meetings are excluded.
At least one step differs from this sequence. Any cut at the specified meetings also means No; it falls under Other at event level.
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
The upper bound is unchanged in October and December, then rises in January. Each comparison is with the level before that scheduled meeting; emergency changes outside those meetings are excluded.
At least one step differs from this sequence. Any cut at the specified meetings also means No; it falls under Other at event level.
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
The upper bound is unchanged in October, December and January. Each comparison is with the level before that scheduled meeting; emergency changes outside those meetings are excluded.
At least one specified meeting produces a hike or cut rather than a pause. A cut means No for the contract and Other at event level.
Which meetings and rate measure count
The market covers FOMC decisions at the October 27–28, December 8–9 and January 26–27 meetings. It defines the relevant rate as the upper bound of the federal funds target range and compares its level after each meeting with its level beforehand.
The stated resolution source is the FOMC statement after its meetings; the Federal Reserve’s official website also publishes the target rate level and change. The meeting dates identify the decisions to check, but do not by themselves determine an outcome.
Hike, pause and Other
A hike means the new upper bound is higher than before that meeting; a pause means it is unchanged; a cut means it is lower. Any cut prevents every selected sequence from matching, so all six binary contracts resolve No while the combination of decisions falls under Other at event level.
Emergency rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are not considered. Yes depends on the sequence of decisions at the three specified scheduled meetings, not on every rate change between them.
How the selected contracts differ
Order matters: Hike-Pause-Hike requires a hike, then no change, then a hike; Hike-Hike-Pause requires two consecutive hikes followed by no change in January. The same number of hikes is not enough: the entire sequence must match for Yes.
This explainer covers six selected contracts, not the event’s full outcome set. The rules assign Other to combinations not listed in the event and explicitly include any cut. A combination’s absence from this selection does not itself establish Other: the supplied data does not establish the event’s complete list of outcomes.
Conditional reading examples
If the upper bound rises in October, is unchanged in December and rises in January, Hike-Pause-Hike resolves Yes while Hike-Hike-Pause resolves No: the December and January steps do not match its sequence.
If the new upper bound at any of the three scheduled meetings is lower than its pre-meeting level, that is a cut. All six selected contracts then resolve No, while the combination of decisions falls under Other at event level.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If the upper bound rises in October, is unchanged in December and rises in January.
Under the rules: Hike-Pause-Hike resolves Yes while Hike-Hike-Pause resolves No: the order of decisions matters.
