Selected contracts cover two or three 25-basis-point units of cuts. The unit count differs from the number of meetings: a single 50-basis-point cut counts as two cuts.
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 9, 2026 — Oct 16, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes0.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Counted cuts include the December meeting and emergency decisions through 23:59 ET on December 31. A 50-basis-point cut counts as two 25-basis-point units; a 1–24-basis-point cut counts as one. A contract can resolve early to NO once its exact count becomes impossible. Settlement uses FOMC statements and official Fed data.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Counted cuts include the December meeting and emergency decisions through 23:59 ET on December 31. A 50-basis-point cut counts as two 25-basis-point units; a 1–24-basis-point cut counts as one. A contract can resolve early to NO once its exact count becomes impossible. Settlement uses FOMC statements and official Fed data.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Counted cuts include the December meeting and emergency decisions through 23:59 ET on December 31. A 50-basis-point cut counts as two 25-basis-point units; a 1–24-basis-point cut counts as one. A contract can resolve early to NO once its exact count becomes impossible. Settlement uses FOMC statements and official Fed data.
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