Economy
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
0.5%
-0.3 pp · 7 days
Event volume $54.4M
Jan 1, 2027
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
POLYMARKETSTARS / MARKET ATLAS
Fed rate predictions on Polymarket: decisions and cuts
Explore Fed rate markets: October and December decisions, the number of cuts and the resulting year-end 2026 rate.
4 selected events9 contractsSnapshot ·
Three different Fed rate questions
A meeting contract compares the rate before and after a decision. An annual cut-count contract may count units of 25 basis points. A year-end level question concerns the resulting upper bound of the range.
One 50-basis-point cut and two separate cuts may count equally in an annual contract. Each event explains its counting method and how a missing statement is handled.
POLYMARKETSTARS / EVENTS
Events and probabilities
A small selection. Every number has a context.
Economy
October 2026 Fed decision on Polymarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
86.5%
+3 pp · 7 days
Event volume $44.8M
Oct 29, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
Economy
December 2026 Fed decision contracts
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
20.5%
-2 pp · 7 days
Event volume $3.8M
Dec 9, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
Economy
The Fed rate at the end of 2026
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
0.3%
0 pp · 7 days
Event volume $7.1M
Jan 1, 2027
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
How to read probabilities and deadlines
A card’s percentage refers to the selected contract’s YES outcome. A price of 0.64 is displayed as 64%. An event can contain several independent markets whose estimates do not automatically add up.
Each event shows its status, data retrieval time, rules and history when comparable observations exist. Missing values are shown with a dash; a passed deadline does not by itself confirm the result.
Understand the conditions
All guidesEconomy · one FOMC decision01
A Fed decision on Polymarket: reading the FOMC rate step
Read a Fed decision market: the specific FOMC meeting, upper rate bound, basis points, a hold and the contract's rounding rule.
Read the guideEconomy · the final rate level02
The year-end Fed rate: range versus upper bound on Polymarket
Read the final Fed rate: target range, upper bound, post-meeting observation, categories and the difference from cut counts or level touches.
Read the guideEconomy · counting rate cuts03
How many Fed rate cuts: how Polymarket counts cuts
Fed cut counts and meeting counts differ. Check 25 bp units, emergency decisions, the observation period and the difference from the final rate.
Read the guide