World
Will the US–Iran ceasefire continue through October?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
81%
+6 pp · 7 days
Event volume $15.3M
Oct 31, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
POLYMARKETSTARS / MARKET ATLAS
Polymarket political predictions: elections and world events
Explore Polymarket election, appointment and ceasefire markets with outcome probabilities, deadlines and precise resolution criteria.
5 selected events17 contractsSnapshot ·
The headline and the resolution condition
A party winning an election and a named person taking office are separate events. Diplomatic contracts depend on the parties to an agreement, its scope and the specified deadline.
A market probability reflects contract prices. It does not confirm a news report, represent a poll or establish why a political situation changed. Read the terms of each selected outcome.
POLYMARKETSTARS / EVENTS
Events and probabilities
A small selection. Every number has a context.
World
Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement deadlines
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
2.2%
-1.9 pp · 7 days
Event volume $8.7M
Nov 1, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
World
Next French presidential election contracts
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
46.2%
+5.6 pp · 7 days
Event volume $152.3M
Apr 19, 2027
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
World
Israel's next prime minister after the election
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
27.5%
-8 pp · 7 days
Event volume $47.1M
Oct 28, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
World
California governor election winner in 2026: contract conditions
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0.1%
0 pp · 7 days
Event volume $42M
Nov 4, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
How to read probabilities and deadlines
A card’s percentage refers to the selected contract’s YES outcome. A price of 0.64 is displayed as 64%. An event can contain several independent markets whose estimates do not automatically add up.
Each event shows its status, data retrieval time, rules and history when comparable observations exist. Missing values are shown with a dash; a passed deadline does not by itself confirm the result.
Understand the conditions
All guidesLearn · two different measurements01
Polymarket versus polls: why the percentages are different
How a market probability differs from a poll response share: question wording, sample, observation time and evaluating forecast accuracy.
Read the guideFrom question to result02
Polymarket rules and market resolution
Understand what determines YES/NO, why sources and deadlines matter and why closed does not always mean resolved.
Read the guideWhen a result is challenged03
Polymarket disputes: proposals and challenged resolutions
Understand disputed Polymarket resolutions: proposed versus final outcomes, the UMA challenge period, evidence and why deadlines do not guarantee finality.
Read the guideHow to read these markets
All guidesLearn · two different measurements01
Polymarket versus polls: why the percentages are different
How a market probability differs from a poll response share: question wording, sample, observation time and evaluating forecast accuracy.
Read the guideFrom question to result02
Polymarket rules and market resolution
Understand what determines YES/NO, why sources and deadlines matter and why closed does not always mean resolved.
Read the guideWhen a result is challenged03
Polymarket disputes: proposals and challenged resolutions
Understand disputed Polymarket resolutions: proposed versus final outcomes, the UMA challenge period, evidence and why deadlines do not guarantee finality.
Read the guide