Contracts cover an agreement by October 31 and December 31, 2026. They require a mutually agreed general suspension of fighting; reduced intensity or a unilateral announcement alone does not meet the condition.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
2.7%
7 days-1.8 pp
30 days-4.8 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 9, 2026 — Oct 16, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Yes2.7%Bid/ask midpoint
No97.3%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 1, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The agreement must be reached by 23:59 ET on the listed date and confirmed by both countries or a credible reporting consensus. It must suspend direct fighting generally with a specified effective date. Local restrictions, informal understandings and negotiation plans without a dated commitment to stop fighting do not qualify. The effective date may follow the contract deadline if agreement was reached in time.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Yes13.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No86.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The agreement must be reached by 23:59 ET on the listed date and confirmed by both countries or a credible reporting consensus. It must suspend direct fighting generally with a specified effective date. Local restrictions, informal understandings and negotiation plans without a dated commitment to stop fighting do not qualify. The effective date may follow the contract deadline if agreement was reached in time.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The agreement must be reached by 23:59 ET on the listed date and confirmed by both countries or a credible reporting consensus. It must suspend direct fighting generally with a specified effective date. Local restrictions, informal understandings and negotiation plans without a dated commitment to stop fighting do not qualify. The effective date may follow the contract deadline if agreement was reached in time.
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