Selected contracts cover Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella and Édouard Philippe. They concern the next presidential election, including a possible runoff. A listed name does not establish that the person is a registered candidate.
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Market estimate / Yes
46%
7 days+4.8 pp
30 days+9.8 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 9, 2026 — Oct 16, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes46%Bid/ask midpoint
No54.1%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Apr 19, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Settlement uses the winner of the next French presidential election, whether scheduled or early, including any runoff. Results still unknown by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027 select Other. A credible reporting consensus applies initially; ambiguity is resolved solely by official French government results, specifically the Interior Ministry.
Original source rules (English)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes0.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Apr 19, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Settlement uses the winner of the next French presidential election, whether scheduled or early, including any runoff. Results still unknown by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027 select Other. A credible reporting consensus applies initially; ambiguity is resolved solely by official French government results, specifically the Interior Ministry.
Original source rules (English)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes17.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No82.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Apr 19, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Settlement uses the winner of the next French presidential election, whether scheduled or early, including any runoff. Results still unknown by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027 select Other. A credible reporting consensus applies initially; ambiguity is resolved solely by official French government results, specifically the Interior Ministry.
Original source rules (English)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Settlement uses the winner of the next French presidential election, whether scheduled or early, including any runoff. Results still unknown by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027 select Other. A credible reporting consensus applies initially; ambiguity is resolved solely by official French government results, specifically the Interior Ministry.
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