Selected contracts cover Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. They concern formally taking office after the parliamentary election, rather than only vote totals or the winning party.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Market estimate / Yes
29.5%
7 days-5 pp
30 days0 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 9, 2026 — Oct 16, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes29.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No70.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The individual must be officially appointed and sworn in after the 2026 parliamentary election; an early election also counts. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not qualify. No qualifying swearing-in by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027 selects Other. Official Israeli government information is primary; a credible reporting consensus may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes13.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No86.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The individual must be officially appointed and sworn in after the 2026 parliamentary election; an early election also counts. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not qualify. No qualifying swearing-in by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027 selects Other. Official Israeli government information is primary; a credible reporting consensus may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The individual must be officially appointed and sworn in after the 2026 parliamentary election; an early election also counts. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not qualify. No qualifying swearing-in by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027 selects Other. Official Israeli government information is primary; a credible reporting consensus may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The individual must be officially appointed and sworn in after the 2026 parliamentary election; an early election also counts. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not qualify. No qualifying swearing-in by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2027 selects Other. Official Israeli government information is primary; a credible reporting consensus may also be used.
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