A “Yes” requires the person to be included on the official candidate list for the first round of France’s 2027 presidential election. If that list is not published before the election, the fallback is who actually appears on the ballot; if the election also does not take place by the stated cutoff, the outcome is “No.”
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Trading open
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Trading open
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Trading open
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Trading open
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Trading open
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Market estimate / Yes
91.5%
7 days-0.5 pp
30 days+2 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 13, 2026 — Oct 20, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 91.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes91.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No8.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jul 1, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
“Yes” means the named person is included on the official candidate list for the first round of France’s 2027 presidential election. If no list is published before the election, actual appearance on the ballot is used. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.” The primary source is the French Constitutional Council’s list; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes7.6%Bid/ask midpoint
No92.4%Bid/ask midpoint
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
“Yes” means the named person is included on the official candidate list for the first round of France’s 2027 presidential election. If no list is published before the election, actual appearance on the ballot is used. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.” The primary source is the French Constitutional Council’s list; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Contract deadline · per API: Jul 1, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
“Yes” means the named person is included on the official candidate list for the first round of France’s 2027 presidential election. If no list is published before the election, actual appearance on the ballot is used. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.” The primary source is the French Constitutional Council’s list; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes81%Bid/ask midpoint
No19%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jul 1, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
“Yes” means the named person is included on the official candidate list for the first round of France’s 2027 presidential election. If no list is published before the election, actual appearance on the ballot is used. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.” The primary source is the French Constitutional Council’s list; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes84.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No15.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jul 1, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
“Yes” means the named person is included on the official candidate list for the first round of France’s 2027 presidential election. If no list is published before the election, actual appearance on the ballot is used. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.” The primary source is the French Constitutional Council’s list; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes79%Bid/ask midpoint
No21%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jul 1, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
“Yes” means the named person is included on the official candidate list for the first round of France’s 2027 presidential election. If no list is published before the election, actual appearance on the ballot is used. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.” The primary source is the French Constitutional Council’s list; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes6%Bid/ask midpoint
No94%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jul 1, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
“Yes” means the named person is included on the official candidate list for the first round of France’s 2027 presidential election. If no list is published before the election, actual appearance on the ballot is used. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.” The primary source is the French Constitutional Council’s list; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
46.1%
+4.2 pp · 7 days
Event volume $154.1M
Apr 19, 2027
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
What Yes and No mean
Conditions of the selected event contracts
Contract question
Yes
No
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Marine Le Pen is included on the official first-round candidate list; if no list is published before the election, she actually appears on the ballot.
She is not included on the official list and, if no list is published before the election, does not appear on the ballot. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.”
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Jordan Bardella is included on the official first-round candidate list; if no list is published before the election, he actually appears on the ballot.
He is not included on the official list and, if no list is published before the election, does not appear on the ballot. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.”
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Éric Zemmour is included on the official first-round candidate list; if no list is published before the election, he actually appears on the ballot.
He is not included on the official list and, if no list is published before the election, does not appear on the ballot. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.”
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Édouard Philippe is included on the official first-round candidate list; if no list is published before the election, he actually appears on the ballot.
He is not included on the official list and, if no list is published before the election, does not appear on the ballot. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.”
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
David Lisnard is included on the official first-round candidate list; if no list is published before the election, he actually appears on the ballot.
He is not included on the official list and, if no list is published before the election, does not appear on the ballot. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.”
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Xavier Bertrand is included on the official first-round candidate list; if no list is published before the election, he actually appears on the ballot.
He is not included on the official list and, if no list is published before the election, does not appear on the ballot. If there is no list and the election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “No.”
What counts as being on the ballot
These markets concern the first round, not announcing a candidacy, expressing an intention to run, or taking part in a second round. The main test is inclusion on the official candidate list that the market description says the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish.
For example, if someone announces an intention to run but is not included on the official list, that alone does not meet the “Yes” condition. If no list is published before the election, the fallback is whether the person actually appears on the ballot.
Resolution source and fallback
The primary resolution source is the Constitutional Council’s official list. The rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used. The criterion remains the same: inclusion on the first-round list, or, if no list is published before the election, actual appearance on the ballot.
If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No.” A market end date or the arrival of a date does not by itself establish an outcome.
Six separate markets, not one combined choice
This selection has separate contracts for Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, Éric Zemmour, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard, and Xavier Bertrand. Each tests only the named person; one person’s appearance does not determine the contracts for the others. This selection covers only the listed markets, not necessarily every possible candidate or contract in the event.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: Suppose the official list is published and includes one of the named people.
Under the rules: That person’s separate market meets the “Yes” condition; this does not determine the outcomes for the other people.
If: Suppose no official list is published before the election, but the election takes place and the named person actually appears on the ballot.
Under the rules: Under the fallback condition, that person’s separate market resolves to “Yes.”
