Selected upper-bound levels are 3%, 3.25% and 3.5%. These concern the resulting rate level, rather than the size of a single cut. The displayed levels do not exhaust the source event's options.
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
0.3%
7 days0 pp
30 days-0.1 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 9, 2026 — Oct 16, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
Yes0.3%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.8%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The upper bound after the December 8–9 FOMC meeting determines settlement. If no December decision is issued by 23:59 ET on December 31, the level at that time applies. Values are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points; an exact midpoint rounds away from zero. Official Fed information is the primary source.
Original source rules (English)
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
Yes0.4%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.6%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The upper bound after the December 8–9 FOMC meeting determines settlement. If no December decision is issued by 23:59 ET on December 31, the level at that time applies. Values are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points; an exact midpoint rounds away from zero. Official Fed information is the primary source.
Original source rules (English)
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
Yes1.6%Bid/ask midpoint
No98.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The upper bound after the December 8–9 FOMC meeting determines settlement. If no December decision is issued by 23:59 ET on December 31, the level at that time applies. Values are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points; an exact midpoint rounds away from zero. Official Fed information is the primary source.
Original source rules (English)
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The upper bound after the December 8–9 FOMC meeting determines settlement. If no December decision is issued by 23:59 ET on December 31, the level at that time applies. Values are rounded to the nearest 25 basis points; an exact midpoint rounds away from zero. Official Fed information is the primary source.
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