A Fed decision on Polymarket: reading the FOMC rate step

Match the month, year and FOMC dates against the official calendar. A two-day meeting, statement publication and press conference are connected but distinct records. A July-decision label does not justify using another year's statement or the previous meeting merely because it is recent.

Then record whether the question concerns a cut, increase, unchanged rate or particular step size. A press-conference wording market cannot substitute for a target-range decision contract.

The checked contract compares the upper bound of the target federal funds range before and after the selected meeting. The new rate level and the size of its change are different values. Keep both observations and their units for a reproducible answer.

Illustrative example: the upper bound moves from 4.00% to 3.75%. The difference is minus 0.25 percentage points, or a 25-basis-point cut. These are hypothetical values, not the current policy rate.

Cards labeled 25 bp, 50+ bp and no change define different conditions. Check boundary inclusion and unusual step sizes. The reviewed decision uses its own rounding procedure, which need not match a year-end rate-level market.

Do not select the nearest option based on the headline. Find the allocation rule first, then compare the observed change. A missing scenario or unclear clause calls for the full terms, rather than an invented answer.

Look for the FOMC statement specified in the contract and the corresponding Federal Reserve record. An analyst forecast, an expected-rate table or a market-percentage change does not replace the published decision. Also inspect delayed-statement and missing-meeting clauses.

In an archive, retain the decision date, measured step and resolution status separately from the position price. This supports an explanation after the meeting without presenting earlier expectations as the official result.