Selected contracts cover no change and a 25-basis-point cut at the October meeting. These are only part of the source event's choices, so the two displayed contracts do not cover every possible decision.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Market estimate / Yes
86.5%
7 days+3 pp
30 days+23 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 9, 2026 — Oct 16, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes86.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No13.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 29, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Settlement compares the upper bound of the target federal funds range before and after the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. An unlisted change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The FOMC statement is the source; if it is absent by the next scheduled meeting's end date, the no-change bracket applies.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes0.4%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.7%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 29, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Settlement compares the upper bound of the target federal funds range before and after the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. An unlisted change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The FOMC statement is the source; if it is absent by the next scheduled meeting's end date, the no-change bracket applies.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Settlement compares the upper bound of the target federal funds range before and after the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. An unlisted change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. The FOMC statement is the source; if it is absent by the next scheduled meeting's end date, the no-change bracket applies.
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