When economic data is released: timing Polymarket markets

In the checked CPI example, the question concerns September while the report is scheduled for October. Quarterly GDP likewise separates the measured quarter from its estimate date. A month in the title does not make the figure known on that month's final day.

Record the country, agency, series and period before searching for a number. Then locate the matching release; a newer page for a different report does not answer the question merely because it is later.

Check BLS for CPI and the Federal Reserve calendar for a meeting. Keep the date, time and original zone. ET follows seasonal Eastern time, so its conversion to UTC or Moscow depends on the date rather than one constant offset.

Publication time also differs from snapshot receipt time. If a page updates after the official release, that is a display delay; its timestamp should not replace the decision instant or statistical reference period.

Quarterly GDP is published in several estimate vintages; CPI series follow their own adjustment rules. Find whether the contract needs the first release, the latest available value at a cutoff or another procedure. Mixing vintages can change a threshold comparison.

Illustrative example: an initial estimate is 0.1 and a later estimate is minus 0.1. Both describe vintages of one series, but only the contract's eligible vintage determines its answer. These are not real economic observations.

A scheduled time does not guarantee that the required release has appeared. The reviewed CPI contract defines waiting and fallback provisions; other questions can use another cutoff. Missing publication does not automatically justify No or the previous figure.

Label unpublished data as pending. After release, separately verify the value, precision, designated source and final resolution. A pre-release news forecast and the actual published report should remain distinct records rather than substitute for each other.