How Polymarket markets on three Fed decisions resolve
A guide to how the selected contracts assess hikes, pauses and other changes in the upper bound of the federal funds target range across three FOMC meetings.
0 of the 5 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Trading open
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Trading open
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Trading open
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Trading open
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Trading open
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Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Market estimate / Yes
68.5%
7 days+2 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 11, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 68.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Yes68.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No31.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 9, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The rate is defined by the upper bound of the federal funds target range. The new bound is compared with its level before each FOMC meeting on September 15–16, October 27–28 and December 8–9: an increase is a Hike, no change is a Pause, and a decrease is a Cut. For the four selected sequence contracts, Yes requires an exact match to the named sequence: Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, Hike–Hike–Hike or Hike–Hike–Pause; otherwise, No. The fifth contract corresponds to Other: Yes for any rate cut or a combination not listed in the full original event; No if one of the combinations listed in the full event occurs. The packet does not establish these four sequences as the event’s complete list, so every other case of Other cannot be enumerated. Emergency changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statements after the meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The rate is defined by the upper bound of the federal funds target range. The new bound is compared with its level before each FOMC meeting on September 15–16, October 27–28 and December 8–9: an increase is a Hike, no change is a Pause, and a decrease is a Cut. For the four selected sequence contracts, Yes requires an exact match to the named sequence: Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, Hike–Hike–Hike or Hike–Hike–Pause; otherwise, No. The fifth contract corresponds to Other: Yes for any rate cut or a combination not listed in the full original event; No if one of the combinations listed in the full event occurs. The packet does not establish these four sequences as the event’s complete list, so every other case of Other cannot be enumerated. Emergency changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statements after the meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
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Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Yes19%Bid/ask midpoint
No81%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 9, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The rate is defined by the upper bound of the federal funds target range. The new bound is compared with its level before each FOMC meeting on September 15–16, October 27–28 and December 8–9: an increase is a Hike, no change is a Pause, and a decrease is a Cut. For the four selected sequence contracts, Yes requires an exact match to the named sequence: Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, Hike–Hike–Hike or Hike–Hike–Pause; otherwise, No. The fifth contract corresponds to Other: Yes for any rate cut or a combination not listed in the full original event; No if one of the combinations listed in the full event occurs. The packet does not establish these four sequences as the event’s complete list, so every other case of Other cannot be enumerated. Emergency changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statements after the meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Yes9%Bid/ask midpoint
No91%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 9, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The rate is defined by the upper bound of the federal funds target range. The new bound is compared with its level before each FOMC meeting on September 15–16, October 27–28 and December 8–9: an increase is a Hike, no change is a Pause, and a decrease is a Cut. For the four selected sequence contracts, Yes requires an exact match to the named sequence: Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, Hike–Hike–Hike or Hike–Hike–Pause; otherwise, No. The fifth contract corresponds to Other: Yes for any rate cut or a combination not listed in the full original event; No if one of the combinations listed in the full event occurs. The packet does not establish these four sequences as the event’s complete list, so every other case of Other cannot be enumerated. Emergency changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statements after the meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Yes3.2%Bid/ask midpoint
No96.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 9, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The rate is defined by the upper bound of the federal funds target range. The new bound is compared with its level before each FOMC meeting on September 15–16, October 27–28 and December 8–9: an increase is a Hike, no change is a Pause, and a decrease is a Cut. For the four selected sequence contracts, Yes requires an exact match to the named sequence: Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, Hike–Hike–Hike or Hike–Hike–Pause; otherwise, No. The fifth contract corresponds to Other: Yes for any rate cut or a combination not listed in the full original event; No if one of the combinations listed in the full event occurs. The packet does not establish these four sequences as the event’s complete list, so every other case of Other cannot be enumerated. Emergency changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statements after the meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Yes1.6%Bid/ask midpoint
No98.4%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 9, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The rate is defined by the upper bound of the federal funds target range. The new bound is compared with its level before each FOMC meeting on September 15–16, October 27–28 and December 8–9: an increase is a Hike, no change is a Pause, and a decrease is a Cut. For the four selected sequence contracts, Yes requires an exact match to the named sequence: Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, Hike–Hike–Hike or Hike–Hike–Pause; otherwise, No. The fifth contract corresponds to Other: Yes for any rate cut or a combination not listed in the full original event; No if one of the combinations listed in the full event occurs. The packet does not establish these four sequences as the event’s complete list, so every other case of Other cannot be enumerated. Emergency changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded. The resolution source is the FOMC statements after the meetings; the Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and change.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
86.5%
+3 pp · 7 days
Event volume $45.3M
Oct 29, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
In this Polymarket selection, outcomes depend on changes to the upper bound of the federal funds target range at three FOMC meetings: in September, October and December. Hike means the upper bound increased from its level before the respective meeting; Pause means it did not change. Each selected contract tests a different sequence of decisions.
The rules define the Fed rate as the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Decisions are assessed at the FOMC meetings on September 15–16, October 27–28 and December 8–9. At each meeting, the new upper bound is compared with its level immediately before that meeting: an increase is a Hike, no change is a Pause, and a decrease is a Cut.
Sequences covered by the selected contracts
This selection includes separate contracts for Hike–Pause–Hike, Hike–Pause–Pause, Hike–Hike–Hike and Hike–Hike–Pause. For each, Yes means that exact sequence occurs in order at the September, October and December meetings; No means it does not. These are selected contracts from the event, not a complete list of every possible combination.
The fifth contract, asking whether the Fed will decide differently across the three meetings, corresponds to Other. Yes means the sequence falls into Other: it differs from every combination listed in the full original event, or includes a rate cut. No means one of the combinations listed in the full event occurs. Other must not be read simply as everything outside the four sequences in this article: the packet does not supply the event’s complete list of combinations, so it cannot establish every other case that falls into Other.
Rate cuts and emergency changes
Any rate cut is included in Other. A sequence containing a Cut therefore cannot be Yes for any of the four selected contracts named solely as combinations of Hike and Pause. Rate changes outside regularly scheduled meetings are not considered, even if they occur between the listed meetings.
Resolution source
The primary resolution source is the FOMC statement after its meetings. The Federal Reserve also publishes the rate level and its change on its official website. A meeting date by itself does not establish an outcome; the contract rules and published decisions govern.
