Fed rate before 2027: six threshold contracts explained
An explanation of selected Fed rate thresholds on Polymarket, covering Yes and No conditions, the precise cutoff, emergency decisions and the official resolution source.
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
Trading open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?
Trading open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?
Trading open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
Trading open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
Trading open
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Trading open
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Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
Market estimate / Yes
2.7%
7 days-0.5 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 11, 2026 — Oct 17, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 2.7%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
Yes2.7%Bid/ask midpoint
No97.4%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00:00 AM UTC
The selected questions set upper-bound thresholds of 4.25%, 4.5%, 4.75%, 5.0%, 5.25% and 5.5% or higher. However, each contract’s shared rule text specifies Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target range reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET; otherwise No. Emergency cuts and hikes outside scheduled meetings count. The source is the Federal Reserve’s official website, in its open market operations section. Resolution may occur as soon as confirming data is published; the level need not be maintained through the end of the period.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?
Yes2.2%Bid/ask midpoint
No97.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00:00 AM UTC
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The selected questions set upper-bound thresholds of 4.25%, 4.5%, 4.75%, 5.0%, 5.25% and 5.5% or higher. However, each contract’s shared rule text specifies Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target range reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET; otherwise No. Emergency cuts and hikes outside scheduled meetings count. The source is the Federal Reserve’s official website, in its open market operations section. Resolution may occur as soon as confirming data is published; the level need not be maintained through the end of the period.
PolymarketStars does not execute trades. Platform availability and terms are determined by Polymarket.
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
The selected questions set upper-bound thresholds of 4.25%, 4.5%, 4.75%, 5.0%, 5.25% and 5.5% or higher. However, each contract’s shared rule text specifies Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target range reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET; otherwise No. Emergency cuts and hikes outside scheduled meetings count. The source is the Federal Reserve’s official website, in its open market operations section. Resolution may occur as soon as confirming data is published; the level need not be maintained through the end of the period.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?
Yes2.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No97.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00:00 AM UTC
The selected questions set upper-bound thresholds of 4.25%, 4.5%, 4.75%, 5.0%, 5.25% and 5.5% or higher. However, each contract’s shared rule text specifies Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target range reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET; otherwise No. Emergency cuts and hikes outside scheduled meetings count. The source is the Federal Reserve’s official website, in its open market operations section. Resolution may occur as soon as confirming data is published; the level need not be maintained through the end of the period.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
Yes13%Bid/ask midpoint
No87%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00:00 AM UTC
The selected questions set upper-bound thresholds of 4.25%, 4.5%, 4.75%, 5.0%, 5.25% and 5.5% or higher. However, each contract’s shared rule text specifies Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target range reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET; otherwise No. Emergency cuts and hikes outside scheduled meetings count. The source is the Federal Reserve’s official website, in its open market operations section. Resolution may occur as soon as confirming data is published; the level need not be maintained through the end of the period.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
Yes4.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No95.6%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00:00 AM UTC
The selected questions set upper-bound thresholds of 4.25%, 4.5%, 4.75%, 5.0%, 5.25% and 5.5% or higher. However, each contract’s shared rule text specifies Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target range reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET; otherwise No. Emergency cuts and hikes outside scheduled meetings count. The source is the Federal Reserve’s official website, in its open market operations section. Resolution may occur as soon as confirming data is published; the level need not be maintained through the end of the period.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Yes78.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No21.6%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00:00 AM UTC
The selected questions set upper-bound thresholds of 4.25%, 4.5%, 4.75%, 5.0%, 5.25% and 5.5% or higher. However, each contract’s shared rule text specifies Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target range reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET; otherwise No. Emergency cuts and hikes outside scheduled meetings count. The source is the Federal Reserve’s official website, in its open market operations section. Resolution may occur as soon as confirming data is published; the level need not be maintained through the end of the period.
Original source rules (English)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
86.5%
+3 pp · 7 days
Event volume $45M
Oct 29, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
The selected contracts ask whether the upper bound of the target federal funds range will reach a specified level or higher before 2027. They test whether a threshold is reached at any point before the stated cutoff, not just the rate at year-end.
Which thresholds are covered
This selection covers six thresholds: 4.25%, 4.5%, 4.75%, 5.0%, 5.25% and 5.5%. Each has its own Yes/No question, with the same deadline and general rules. This selection is not presented as the full list of contracts in the event.
The questions specify the stated level “or higher.” These thresholds are therefore not mutually exclusive alternatives for a single final rate: reaching a higher level can satisfy several lower thresholds at the same time.
What produces Yes or No
The rule text specifies Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target range reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the result is No. The headline phrase “before 2027” does not replace this precise cutoff.
Reaching the threshold within the stated period is sufficient: the rules do not require the rate to remain at that level until the end of the period. A subsequent cut does not by itself undo a condition that has already been met.
Upper bound in the question, either bound in the rules
There is an important wording distinction: all six questions name the upper bound, while each contract’s rule text refers to the lower or upper bound of the target range. The supplied data provides no separate clarification of this difference. Both formulations matter when reading the contract; the rules should not be paraphrased as an upper-bound-only condition.
Which decisions count and where the result comes from
The rules connect the target range to decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside regularly scheduled meetings also count, so the condition is not restricted to the scheduled meeting calendar.
The resolution source is the Federal Reserve’s official website, in its open market operations section. A contract may resolve as soon as data confirming that the level was reached is published. Reaching an end date or closing trading does not itself establish a confirmed outcome.
