A guide to which Fed rate increases count in the selected 2026 markets, how exact-count contracts differ from the five-or-more category, and which sources determine the result.
0 of the 5 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Trading open
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Trading open
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Trading open
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Trading open
Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
22.5%
7 days+1 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 11, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 22.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Yes22.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No77.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The count covers Fed hikes in 2026. The baseline unit is 25 basis points; a 50-basis-point increase counts as two hikes, while a separate increase of 1 to 24 basis points, inclusive, counts as one. Scheduled meetings, including December, and emergency hikes outside the FOMC schedule count. Markets remain open until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time. Exact-count contracts resolve early to No if the number of hikes exceeds the specified count. The resolution source is FOMC statements after meetings on the official calendar; the Fed also publishes the level and change of its target rate. The selected contracts cover exact counts from one through four and a separate five-or-more category.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The count covers Fed hikes in 2026. The baseline unit is 25 basis points; a 50-basis-point increase counts as two hikes, while a separate increase of 1 to 24 basis points, inclusive, counts as one. Scheduled meetings, including December, and emergency hikes outside the FOMC schedule count. Markets remain open until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time. Exact-count contracts resolve early to No if the number of hikes exceeds the specified count. The resolution source is FOMC statements after meetings on the official calendar; the Fed also publishes the level and change of its target rate. The selected contracts cover exact counts from one through four and a separate five-or-more category.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Yes
68.5%
Bid/ask midpoint
No31.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The count covers Fed hikes in 2026. The baseline unit is 25 basis points; a 50-basis-point increase counts as two hikes, while a separate increase of 1 to 24 basis points, inclusive, counts as one. Scheduled meetings, including December, and emergency hikes outside the FOMC schedule count. Markets remain open until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time. Exact-count contracts resolve early to No if the number of hikes exceeds the specified count. The resolution source is FOMC statements after meetings on the official calendar; the Fed also publishes the level and change of its target rate. The selected contracts cover exact counts from one through four and a separate five-or-more category.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The count covers Fed hikes in 2026. The baseline unit is 25 basis points; a 50-basis-point increase counts as two hikes, while a separate increase of 1 to 24 basis points, inclusive, counts as one. Scheduled meetings, including December, and emergency hikes outside the FOMC schedule count. Markets remain open until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time. Exact-count contracts resolve early to No if the number of hikes exceeds the specified count. The resolution source is FOMC statements after meetings on the official calendar; the Fed also publishes the level and change of its target rate. The selected contracts cover exact counts from one through four and a separate five-or-more category.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The count covers Fed hikes in 2026. The baseline unit is 25 basis points; a 50-basis-point increase counts as two hikes, while a separate increase of 1 to 24 basis points, inclusive, counts as one. Scheduled meetings, including December, and emergency hikes outside the FOMC schedule count. Markets remain open until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time. Exact-count contracts resolve early to No if the number of hikes exceeds the specified count. The resolution source is FOMC statements after meetings on the official calendar; the Fed also publishes the level and change of its target rate. The selected contracts cover exact counts from one through four and a separate five-or-more category.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
The count covers Fed hikes in 2026. The baseline unit is 25 basis points; a 50-basis-point increase counts as two hikes, while a separate increase of 1 to 24 basis points, inclusive, counts as one. Scheduled meetings, including December, and emergency hikes outside the FOMC schedule count. Markets remain open until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time. Exact-count contracts resolve early to No if the number of hikes exceeds the specified count. The resolution source is FOMC statements after meetings on the official calendar; the Fed also publishes the level and change of its target rate. The selected contracts cover exact counts from one through four and a separate five-or-more category.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
86.5%
+3 pp · 7 days
Event volume $45.2M
Oct 29, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
The selected contracts ask whether the Fed will make exactly one, two, three, or four rate hikes in 2026, or at least five. The count follows the contract rules; outcomes are checked against FOMC statements and official Federal Reserve data.
What counts as a hike
The baseline is a 25-basis-point hike. If the Fed raises rates by 50 basis points after a meeting, that counts as two hikes. A separate increase of 1 to 24 basis points, inclusive, also counts as one hike.
The count includes decisions at scheduled meetings, including the December meeting, as well as emergency hikes outside the FOMC meeting schedule. The rules concern rate increases; they do not count a cut or an unchanged rate as a hike.
Exact counts versus five or more
In the selected contracts, Yes for one, two, three, or four hikes means that exact total for 2026. The five-or-more contract is different: it covers any final total of at least five. These are the selected contracts, not a claim that this is the event’s complete contract list.
An exact-count contract resolves early to No if the number of hikes already made exceeds its threshold, because the specified exact total has become impossible. A market’s closure or the arrival of its end date does not by itself establish the outcome.
When and from which sources the outcome is determined
The markets remain open until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time to account for possible emergency hikes. That deadline alone does not establish how many hikes occurred or how a market resolved.
The stated resolution source is FOMC statements after 2026 meetings listed on the official calendar. The Federal Reserve also publishes the level and change of the target federal funds rate on its official website.
