How many Fed rate cuts: how Polymarket counts cuts

In the checked annual market, a 50-basis-point reduction counts as two 25-basis-point units despite being one announcement. Two cuts therefore need not mean two meetings. This is that contract's definition, rather than a universal description of Fed policy.

Illustrative example: two 25 bp decisions and one 50 bp decision produce four standard units but three decisions. This sequence teaches the distinction; it does not forecast future meetings.

Do not mechanically divide every unusual reduction by 25. The checked market separately handles 1–24 bp moves and emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings. Another series may use different terms, so retain the rule alongside the observation period.

No decision on an ordinary calendar date does not exclude off-schedule action when the contract allows it. A news reference to an emergency measure still needs confirmation from the designated source.

When a period includes a reduction and an increase, the final level reflects both directions. A cuts-only count may record reductions alone. Do not reconstruct it from the starting and ending rate without the full sequence and exact terms.

Illustrative example: a 25 bp cut followed by a 25 bp increase restores the starting level. That does not establish that no cut happened. The level and the count describe different parts of the sequence.

A third eligible unit makes an exactly-two condition impossible, while at-least-two behaves differently. Read any grouped upper category, the year and the final boundary. The broad event title does not reveal every limitation of its individual cards.

Build a log of confirmed decisions: time, old and new levels, change size and counted units. The log and the contract establish the final answer; a current probability is not the annual total.