In this contract, Yes means the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is raised during the specified window: from September 17, 2026 through the completion of the Fed’s December meeting. A decision announced at the conclusion of the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting does not count.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 1 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
78.5%
7 days+3 pp
30 days-5 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 11, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
READ THIS EVENT
What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Another Fed rate hike in 2026?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 78.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes78.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No21.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Dec 10, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increases at any point from September 17, 2026 through the completion of the Fed’s December meeting, including an increase announced as a result of that meeting. Emergency increases on or after September 17 also count. A change announced at the conclusion of the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting is excluded. No is possible only after the Fed releases its rate-change decision following the December meeting. The primary source is the Fed’s official website; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increases at any point from September 17, 2026 through the completion of the Fed’s December meeting, including an increase announced as a result of that meeting. Emergency increases on or after September 17 also count. A change announced at the conclusion of the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting is excluded. No is possible only after the Fed releases its rate-change decision following the December meeting. The primary source is the Fed’s official website; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolymarketStars does not execute trades. Platform availability and terms are determined by Polymarket.
For Yes, the upper bound of the target federal funds rate must increase at any point from September 17, 2026 through the completion of the Fed’s December meeting. The rules include an increase announced as a result of that meeting, currently scheduled for December 8–9, 2026.
Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 also qualify. The condition is specifically an increase in the upper bound of the target rate, not just any change to the rate.
Why the September meeting is excluded
A target-rate change announced at the conclusion of the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting does not affect this market’s outcome. So an increase at that meeting alone would not produce Yes: the rules count changes beginning September 17.
When No is possible and what determines the result
If no qualifying increase occurs during the specified period, the contract resolves to No. However, it cannot resolve to No until the Fed releases its rate-change decision following the December meeting. The market’s end date alone does not establish the outcome.
The primary resolution source is the Federal Reserve’s official website; the rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting. The contract conditions and resolution sources determine the outcome, not a trading estimate.
