Find the complete test, including alternatives
A market may require an NBER announcement, a particular GDP sequence or any of several conditions. The checked contract uses alternative branches. One unmet branch therefore does not establish No when another can still qualify during the eligible period.
Write the logic as A or B or A and B only after reading the terms. These relationships change the question substantially; the word recession appearing in several titles does not establish equivalent contracts.
NBER does not use only two GDP quarters
NBER considers depth, breadth and duration across economic indicators. Its procedure is not a mechanical two-negative-quarter rule. When a contract separately specifies a GDP criterion, that is a distinct branch rather than a restatement of NBER's definition.
For GDP, check real versus nominal, the previous-quarter comparison, seasonal adjustment and annualization. A nominal level, annual growth and quarterly real change cannot substitute for one another when interpreting the condition.
The downturn date and announcement date differ
NBER dating can describe earlier months while being announced later. A market separately needs the eligible downturn period and announcement cutoff. Do not assign the economic episode to the news year merely because the decision became public then.
Illustrative example: an announcement in Y+1 concerns a downturn in Y. Qualification depends on whether the contract requires an episode in Y, an announcement before Y ends or another cutoff.
Check GDP vintages and rule clarifications
Advance, second and third estimates can differ. If the contract permits an early estimate alongside the current vintage of the previous quarter, keep that required pair. Do not automatically apply a later revision to a completed answer without a relevant clause.
Read Additional context and check that the quarters in the text are consistent. Do not repair conflicting dates by guessing. A confirmed answer needs clear terms, the designated evidence source and final resolution status.
FAQ /
Common questions
Are two negative GDP quarters NBER's definition?
No. NBER uses a broader procedure. A contract can select a GDP condition, but that does not make it NBER's universal method.
Does an announcement next year automatically produce Yes?
No. Both the downturn period and announcement timing must match the terms. Read those dates separately even when the statement concerns an earlier event.