Polymarket Up/Down: how the price direction is determined

Price to Beat is the starting reference for the comparison. Polymarket’s current documentation describes Chainlink TWAP markets using a starting reference and a final price. TWAP is an average price weighted by time over a defined measurement window.

The value belongs to the selected pair and interval. Do not borrow the starting value of the preceding contract, even when both screens show the same asset.

The documentation assigns Up when the final value is at least the starting value, and Down when it is lower. Check the particular card’s own rules and mechanism: an archived contract and a current series can describe the source differently.

Illustrative example: a start of 200 and a finish of 200 produce Up under a >= rule. A finish of 199 produces Down. These are invented teaching values, not quotes.

The price can rise first and then fall below the reference. The direction of the last minute can also differ from the entire window’s outcome. A green candle or a temporary move above Price to Beat cannot establish the final comparison.

Read the asset chart separately from the market estimate for Up. They use different units and may represent data received at different times.

Match the asset, start, duration, source and equality rule. Near the deadline, a displayed value may not yet include the latest eligible observation. Elapsed time is not a substitute for a confirmed market result.

Adjacent windows can be useful for study, but Up winning one interval guarantees nothing about the next. Each question starts from its own reference price and observation period.