Selected contracts ask whether Bitcoin will touch $95,000 or $200,000 before the end of 2026. They concern a threshold being reached, rather than the year-end closing price. Their estimates do not sum to 100%.
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 9, 2026 — Oct 16, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes35%Bid/ask midpoint
No65%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 05:00:00 AM UTC
YES requires the high of a finalized one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle to meet or exceed the contract's threshold, from that contract's creation through 23:59 ET on December 31, 2026. Earlier price action and other exchanges or pairs are excluded.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 05:00:00 AM UTC
YES requires the high of a finalized one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle to meet or exceed the contract's threshold, from that contract's creation through 23:59 ET on December 31, 2026. Earlier price action and other exchanges or pairs are excluded.
Original source rules (English)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
YES requires the high of a finalized one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle to meet or exceed the contract's threshold, from that contract's creation through 23:59 ET on December 31, 2026. Earlier price action and other exchanges or pairs are excluded.
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