Bitcoin thresholds on Polymarket: a touch or a closing price?

A reach condition examines the eligible period. An above-on-a-date condition examines the measurement defined in its rules. Historical BTC contracts include Binance one-minute candle High tests. That illustrates a particular measurement, rather than a standard for every question about Bitcoin.

In an illustrative example, the price reaches 101 and finishes at 98 against a threshold of 100. A touch and an ending-value test produce different answers.

Above and at least differ exactly at the boundary. Write the comparison as > or >= after reading the rules. A rounded display cannot establish which value was compared with the threshold; you need the measurement supplied by the designated source.

A rule requiring strictly more than 100 is not met by exactly 100. A rule allowing 100 or more is met. These numbers are illustrative.

Nested thresholds are not alternative single winners. With the same source and period, reaching 110 also means reaching 100. Their separate probabilities therefore need not add to 100%. Check whether the list also mixes upward and downward thresholds.

Compare observation starts before comparing estimates. A later-created contract may exclude an earlier touch despite a similar title, because its eligible window is different.

For the selected question, record the asset and pair, number, comparison sign, period, source and required price field. This makes two contracts easier to compare and explains why a record-price headline may not settle that particular market.

The market percentage concerns this recorded condition. It does not specify Bitcoin’s future price, the size of a move or a confirmed result while the eligible period remains open.