0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
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Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
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Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Trading open
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
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Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
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POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
In this Polymarket event, “best AI model” means the leader of arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) under specified rules, not an overall judgment of AI capabilities. The result identifies the company owning the first-place model when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM Eastern Time (ET).
What Yes means for the selected companies
This explainer covers six contracts: Anthropic, Meta, Google, Alibaba, Moonshot and OpenAI. In each, Yes means the named company owns the model that finishes first under the specified rules; No means that company is not determined to be the winner. These are selected contracts, not the full list of options in the event.
Which leaderboard and models count
The resolution source is arena.ai’s Leaderboard tab, using Text Arena | Overall. The rules specify the Rank column, with style control off, Adjustments: None and the Models filter. The outcome therefore depends on this particular leaderboard configuration, not any ranking on the site.
Models marked AutoEval at the applicable check time are excluded. A displayed rank or score does not make such a model eligible for the comparison.
How ties are broken
Models are ordered first by leaderboard rank. Tied ranks are separated by Arena score, including underlying unrounded values in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in the market group is the final tiebreaker. The outcome belongs to the company in first place after these steps.
The check time versus the endDate field
All six contracts specify the same check time in their rules: October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. However, Meta’s endDate field is November 1, 2026, at 03:59 UTC, while the other five show October 31 at 16:00 UTC. That metadata difference does not change the check time explicitly stated in the rules; reaching an endDate is not itself proof of resolution.
What happens if the source is unavailable
If the leaderboard is unavailable at the scheduled time, the market remains open until it returns. Resolution uses the first check after restoration, not an assumed snapshot from the original time. If the source becomes permanently unavailable, the rules specify Other, so none of the six named companies receives Yes in that case.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
22.5%
7 days-3 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 10, 2026 — Oct 17, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 22.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes22.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No77.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 31, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For all six selected contracts, the winner is the company owning the first-place model in arena.ai Text Arena | Overall at the October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check. Use Rank, style control off, Adjustments: None and the Models filter; exclude AutoEval models regardless of any displayed rank or score. Rank ties are broken by Arena score including underlying unrounded values, then alphabetically by company names in the market group. The winning company's contract receives Yes; the others receive No. Temporary source unavailability defers the check until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability resolves to Other. Meta has a different endDate field, but the same check time in its rules.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes0.4%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.7%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 1, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
For all six selected contracts, the winner is the company owning the first-place model in arena.ai Text Arena | Overall at the October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check. Use Rank, style control off, Adjustments: None and the Models filter; exclude AutoEval models regardless of any displayed rank or score. Rank ties are broken by Arena score including underlying unrounded values, then alphabetically by company names in the market group. The winning company's contract receives Yes; the others receive No. Temporary source unavailability defers the check until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability resolves to Other. Meta has a different endDate field, but the same check time in its rules.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes75.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No24.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 31, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For all six selected contracts, the winner is the company owning the first-place model in arena.ai Text Arena | Overall at the October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check. Use Rank, style control off, Adjustments: None and the Models filter; exclude AutoEval models regardless of any displayed rank or score. Rank ties are broken by Arena score including underlying unrounded values, then alphabetically by company names in the market group. The winning company's contract receives Yes; the others receive No. Temporary source unavailability defers the check until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability resolves to Other. Meta has a different endDate field, but the same check time in its rules.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 31, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For all six selected contracts, the winner is the company owning the first-place model in arena.ai Text Arena | Overall at the October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check. Use Rank, style control off, Adjustments: None and the Models filter; exclude AutoEval models regardless of any displayed rank or score. Rank ties are broken by Arena score including underlying unrounded values, then alphabetically by company names in the market group. The winning company's contract receives Yes; the others receive No. Temporary source unavailability defers the check until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability resolves to Other. Meta has a different endDate field, but the same check time in its rules.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 31, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For all six selected contracts, the winner is the company owning the first-place model in arena.ai Text Arena | Overall at the October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check. Use Rank, style control off, Adjustments: None and the Models filter; exclude AutoEval models regardless of any displayed rank or score. Rank ties are broken by Arena score including underlying unrounded values, then alphabetically by company names in the market group. The winning company's contract receives Yes; the others receive No. Temporary source unavailability defers the check until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability resolves to Other. Meta has a different endDate field, but the same check time in its rules.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes0.7%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.4%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 31, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For all six selected contracts, the winner is the company owning the first-place model in arena.ai Text Arena | Overall at the October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check. Use Rank, style control off, Adjustments: None and the Models filter; exclude AutoEval models regardless of any displayed rank or score. Rank ties are broken by Arena score including underlying unrounded values, then alphabetically by company names in the market group. The winning company's contract receives Yes; the others receive No. Temporary source unavailability defers the check until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability resolves to Other. Meta has a different endDate field, but the same check time in its rules.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
For all six selected contracts, the winner is the company owning the first-place model in arena.ai Text Arena | Overall at the October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check. Use Rank, style control off, Adjustments: None and the Models filter; exclude AutoEval models regardless of any displayed rank or score. Rank ties are broken by Arena score including underlying unrounded values, then alphabetically by company names in the market group. The winning company's contract receives Yes; the others receive No. Temporary source unavailability defers the check until the first check after restoration; permanent unavailability resolves to Other. Meta has a different endDate field, but the same check time in its rules.
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