“Yes” requires SpaceX (SPCX) to close strictly above the threshold in that contract on the final trading day of October 2026; an exact tie resolves to “No.” If SPCX does not trade at all during that day’s regular session, the outcome is 50-50.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of October?
Trading open
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $100 end of October?
Trading open
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of October?
Trading open
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $120 end of October?
Trading open
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of October?
Trading open
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $140 end of October?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of October?
Market estimate / Yes
92.6%
7 days-4.6 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 12, 2026 — Oct 19, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of October?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 92.6%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of October?
Yes92.6%Bid/ask midpoint
No7.4%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 30, 2026, 08:00:00 PM UTC
For each threshold, “Yes” requires SPCX’s closing price to be strictly above it on the final trading day of October 2026; an exact tie is “No,” while no trading during that day’s regular session resolves 50-50. The source is the Pyth Close of the final one-minute candle of the regular session (or shortened session), without rounding. If that candle lacks a valid value, the last valid Pyth price during regular trading is used; if technical problems leave no valid price for the day, the primary exchange’s official close is used. Corporate actions use split-adjusted Pyth prices and a proportionally adjusted threshold.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If SpaceX (SPCX) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
For each threshold, “Yes” requires SPCX’s closing price to be strictly above it on the final trading day of October 2026; an exact tie is “No,” while no trading during that day’s regular session resolves 50-50. The source is the Pyth Close of the final one-minute candle of the regular session (or shortened session), without rounding. If that candle lacks a valid value, the last valid Pyth price during regular trading is used; if technical problems leave no valid price for the day, the primary exchange’s official close is used. Corporate actions use split-adjusted Pyth prices and a proportionally adjusted threshold.
PolymarketStars does not execute trades. Platform availability and terms are determined by Polymarket.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $100 end of October?
Yes94.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No5.6%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 30, 2026, 08:00:00 PM UTC
For each threshold, “Yes” requires SPCX’s closing price to be strictly above it on the final trading day of October 2026; an exact tie is “No,” while no trading during that day’s regular session resolves 50-50. The source is the Pyth Close of the final one-minute candle of the regular session (or shortened session), without rounding. If that candle lacks a valid value, the last valid Pyth price during regular trading is used; if technical problems leave no valid price for the day, the primary exchange’s official close is used. Corporate actions use split-adjusted Pyth prices and a proportionally adjusted threshold.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If SpaceX (SPCX) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of October?
Yes89.6%Bid/ask midpoint
No10.4%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 30, 2026, 08:00:00 PM UTC
For each threshold, “Yes” requires SPCX’s closing price to be strictly above it on the final trading day of October 2026; an exact tie is “No,” while no trading during that day’s regular session resolves 50-50. The source is the Pyth Close of the final one-minute candle of the regular session (or shortened session), without rounding. If that candle lacks a valid value, the last valid Pyth price during regular trading is used; if technical problems leave no valid price for the day, the primary exchange’s official close is used. Corporate actions use split-adjusted Pyth prices and a proportionally adjusted threshold.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If SpaceX (SPCX) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $120 end of October?
Yes93.9%Bid/ask midpoint
No6.2%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 30, 2026, 08:00:00 PM UTC
For each threshold, “Yes” requires SPCX’s closing price to be strictly above it on the final trading day of October 2026; an exact tie is “No,” while no trading during that day’s regular session resolves 50-50. The source is the Pyth Close of the final one-minute candle of the regular session (or shortened session), without rounding. If that candle lacks a valid value, the last valid Pyth price during regular trading is used; if technical problems leave no valid price for the day, the primary exchange’s official close is used. Corporate actions use split-adjusted Pyth prices and a proportionally adjusted threshold.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If SpaceX (SPCX) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of October?
Yes86.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No13.6%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 30, 2026, 08:00:00 PM UTC
For each threshold, “Yes” requires SPCX’s closing price to be strictly above it on the final trading day of October 2026; an exact tie is “No,” while no trading during that day’s regular session resolves 50-50. The source is the Pyth Close of the final one-minute candle of the regular session (or shortened session), without rounding. If that candle lacks a valid value, the last valid Pyth price during regular trading is used; if technical problems leave no valid price for the day, the primary exchange’s official close is used. Corporate actions use split-adjusted Pyth prices and a proportionally adjusted threshold.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If SpaceX (SPCX) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $140 end of October?
Yes70.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No29.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 30, 2026, 08:00:00 PM UTC
For each threshold, “Yes” requires SPCX’s closing price to be strictly above it on the final trading day of October 2026; an exact tie is “No,” while no trading during that day’s regular session resolves 50-50. The source is the Pyth Close of the final one-minute candle of the regular session (or shortened session), without rounding. If that candle lacks a valid value, the last valid Pyth price during regular trading is used; if technical problems leave no valid price for the day, the primary exchange’s official close is used. Corporate actions use split-adjusted Pyth prices and a proportionally adjusted threshold.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for SpaceX (SPCX) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If SpaceX (SPCX) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for SpaceX (SPCX) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPCX%2FUSD.
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
40.5%
-2 pp · 7 days
Event volume $2.6M
Dec 31, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
What Yes and No mean
Conditions of the selected event contracts
Contract question
Yes
No
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of October?
The closing price under the contract rules is strictly above $90.
The price is $90 or lower; an exact tie is “No.” If SPCX does not trade during the final trading day’s regular session, the 50-50 rule applies.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $100 end of October?
The closing price under the contract rules is strictly above $100.
The price is $100 or lower; an exact tie is “No.” If SPCX does not trade during the final trading day’s regular session, the 50-50 rule applies.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of October?
The closing price under the contract rules is strictly above $110.
The price is $110 or lower; an exact tie is “No.” If SPCX does not trade during the final trading day’s regular session, the 50-50 rule applies.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $120 end of October?
The closing price under the contract rules is strictly above $120.
The price is $120 or lower; an exact tie is “No.” If SPCX does not trade during the final trading day’s regular session, the 50-50 rule applies.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $130 end of October?
The closing price under the contract rules is strictly above $130.
The price is $130 or lower; an exact tie is “No.” If SPCX does not trade during the final trading day’s regular session, the 50-50 rule applies.
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $140 end of October?
The closing price under the contract rules is strictly above $140.
The price is $140 or lower; an exact tie is “No.” If SPCX does not trade during the final trading day’s regular session, the 50-50 rule applies.
Which closing price counts
For a regular session, the market uses the Pyth Close value of the one-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading on the primary exchange. For a shortened session, it uses the candle for the final minute of that shortened session. Pyth closing values are used without rounding.
If the relevant candle has no valid Pyth Close value, the last valid Pyth price during that day’s regular session is used. If no valid Pyth price exists for the day because of a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange is used.
Thresholds and exceptions
The selected contracts each test a separate threshold: $90, $100, $110, $120, $130, or $140. A price equal to the threshold does not satisfy “above” and resolves to “No”; if SPCX does not trade at all during the final trading day’s regular session, the rule instead specifies a 50-50 outcome.
If a stock split, reverse split, or similar corporate action occurs, the market uses Pyth’s split-adjusted price and proportionally adjusts the target threshold. The resolution reference is Pyth’s historical SPCX data; the end date alone does not establish an outcome.
Each threshold is a separate question
Each selected market compares the same closing price with its own threshold. An answer at one threshold should not be treated as the outcome for every other selected contract, and this selection need not include every contract in the event.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If the valid closing price under the market rules exactly equals that contract’s threshold,
Under the rules: that contract resolves to “No,” because the price must be strictly above the threshold.
If: If SPCX does not trade at all during the final trading day’s regular session,
Under the rules: the contract resolves 50-50 rather than through the ordinary comparison with its threshold.
