What the Polymarket Tesla–SpaceX merger markets mean
How selected markets on an official Tesla–SpaceX acquisition or merger announcement work: what qualifies for Yes, which transactions do not count, and how the deadlines differ.
These markets test a timely official announcement, not the completion of a combination of the companies. The announcement can concern a planned, ongoing or already completed acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX, acquisition of SpaceX by Tesla, or merger between them. Control of the company and the announcement date matter; completion of the transaction is not itself required for Yes.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 5 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Trading open
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?
Trading open
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?
Trading open
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?
Trading open
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Market estimate / Yes
28%
7 days+13.5 pp
30 days+8.5 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 12, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
READ THIS EVENT
What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 28%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Yes28%Bid/ask midpoint
No72%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Yes if, by the deadline, there is an official announcement of a planned, ongoing or already completed acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX, acquisition of SpaceX by Tesla, or merger between them. An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within the timeframe qualifies regardless of whether or when the transaction occurs; completion is not itself required. A partial sale may qualify if it transfers control over strategic decisions—typically more than 50 percent of equity or equivalent voting and governance rights; a transaction or investment without a transfer of control does not qualify. Otherwise, the outcome is No. The primary source is official information from Tesla or SpaceX; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The selected deadlines are December 31, 2026; January 31, 2027; February 28, 2027; June 30, 2027; and December 31, 2027, each at 11:59 PM ET.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Yes if, by the deadline, there is an official announcement of a planned, ongoing or already completed acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX, acquisition of SpaceX by Tesla, or merger between them. An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within the timeframe qualifies regardless of whether or when the transaction occurs; completion is not itself required. A partial sale may qualify if it transfers control over strategic decisions—typically more than 50 percent of equity or equivalent voting and governance rights; a transaction or investment without a transfer of control does not qualify. Otherwise, the outcome is No. The primary source is official information from Tesla or SpaceX; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The selected deadlines are December 31, 2026; January 31, 2027; February 28, 2027; June 30, 2027; and December 31, 2027, each at 11:59 PM ET.
PolymarketStars does not execute trades. Platform availability and terms are determined by Polymarket.
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Yes38.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No61.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Yes if, by the deadline, there is an official announcement of a planned, ongoing or already completed acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX, acquisition of SpaceX by Tesla, or merger between them. An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within the timeframe qualifies regardless of whether or when the transaction occurs; completion is not itself required. A partial sale may qualify if it transfers control over strategic decisions—typically more than 50 percent of equity or equivalent voting and governance rights; a transaction or investment without a transfer of control does not qualify. Otherwise, the outcome is No. The primary source is official information from Tesla or SpaceX; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The selected deadlines are December 31, 2026; January 31, 2027; February 28, 2027; June 30, 2027; and December 31, 2027, each at 11:59 PM ET.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?
Yes65%Bid/ask midpoint
No35%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2028, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Yes if, by the deadline, there is an official announcement of a planned, ongoing or already completed acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX, acquisition of SpaceX by Tesla, or merger between them. An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within the timeframe qualifies regardless of whether or when the transaction occurs; completion is not itself required. A partial sale may qualify if it transfers control over strategic decisions—typically more than 50 percent of equity or equivalent voting and governance rights; a transaction or investment without a transfer of control does not qualify. Otherwise, the outcome is No. The primary source is official information from Tesla or SpaceX; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The selected deadlines are December 31, 2026; January 31, 2027; February 28, 2027; June 30, 2027; and December 31, 2027, each at 11:59 PM ET.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?
Yes39.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No60.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Mar 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Yes if, by the deadline, there is an official announcement of a planned, ongoing or already completed acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX, acquisition of SpaceX by Tesla, or merger between them. An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within the timeframe qualifies regardless of whether or when the transaction occurs; completion is not itself required. A partial sale may qualify if it transfers control over strategic decisions—typically more than 50 percent of equity or equivalent voting and governance rights; a transaction or investment without a transfer of control does not qualify. Otherwise, the outcome is No. The primary source is official information from Tesla or SpaceX; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The selected deadlines are December 31, 2026; January 31, 2027; February 28, 2027; June 30, 2027; and December 31, 2027, each at 11:59 PM ET.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?
Yes58.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No41.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jul 1, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Yes if, by the deadline, there is an official announcement of a planned, ongoing or already completed acquisition of Tesla by SpaceX, acquisition of SpaceX by Tesla, or merger between them. An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within the timeframe qualifies regardless of whether or when the transaction occurs; completion is not itself required. A partial sale may qualify if it transfers control over strategic decisions—typically more than 50 percent of equity or equivalent voting and governance rights; a transaction or investment without a transfer of control does not qualify. Otherwise, the outcome is No. The primary source is official information from Tesla or SpaceX; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The selected deadlines are December 31, 2026; January 31, 2027; February 28, 2027; June 30, 2027; and December 31, 2027, each at 11:59 PM ET.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
39.5%
-3 pp · 7 days
Event volume $2.6M
Dec 31, 2026
STALE
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
What must happen for Yes
Yes means an acquisition by either company of the other, or a merger between them, is announced by that contract’s deadline. The announcement can concern a planned, ongoing or already completed transaction. An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within the timeframe qualifies regardless of whether, or when, the transaction itself takes place.
A partial sale may qualify if the acquiring company obtains a controlling interest, meaning enough control to direct the other company’s strategic decisions. The rules give typically more than 50 percent of equity, or equivalent control through voting and governance rights, as a guide. An investment or transaction that does not transfer control does not qualify.
What leads to No, and what sources can resolve it
No means no qualifying official announcement has been made by the relevant contract’s deadline. The market closing or the arrival of the deadline does not by itself establish an outcome.
The primary resolution source is official information from Tesla or SpaceX. The rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting. An announcement and the actual completion of an acquisition or merger are distinct: Yes requires the former, provided the other criteria are met, not the latter.
How the selected deadlines differ
The selection contains five deadlines: December 31, 2026; January 31, 2027; February 28, 2027; June 30, 2027; and December 31, 2027. Each contract specifies 11:59 PM ET. A later date gives a longer window for an announcement, but each contract resolves separately against its own cutoff.
These are selected contracts, not a claim that the selection includes every market in the event. Their outcomes or estimates should not be added together: the rules do not establish that the deadlines are mutually exclusive outcomes.
