0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Trading open
Will Aston Villa reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Trading open
Will Arsenal reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Trading open
Will Manchester City reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Trading open
Will Manchester United reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Trading open
Will Liverpool reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Market estimate / Yes
25.5%
7 days—
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 13, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 25.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Yes25.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No74.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: May 9, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts have identical rules and differ only by club. Yes applies if the named club reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final. No applies once reaching the final becomes impossible, including through mathematical elimination. No also applies if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or the final matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. Resolution uses official UEFA information; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2027 UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the 2027 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Aston Villa reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Yes4.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No95.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: May 9, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts have identical rules and differ only by club. Yes applies if the named club reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final. No applies once reaching the final becomes impossible, including through mathematical elimination. No also applies if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or the final matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. Resolution uses official UEFA information; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
All six contracts have identical rules and differ only by club. Yes applies if the named club reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final. No applies once reaching the final becomes impossible, including through mathematical elimination. No also applies if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or the final matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. Resolution uses official UEFA information; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2027 UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the 2027 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Arsenal reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Yes24.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No75.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: May 9, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts have identical rules and differ only by club. Yes applies if the named club reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final. No applies once reaching the final becomes impossible, including through mathematical elimination. No also applies if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or the final matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. Resolution uses official UEFA information; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2027 UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the 2027 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester City reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Yes16%Bid/ask midpoint
No84%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: May 9, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts have identical rules and differ only by club. Yes applies if the named club reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final. No applies once reaching the final becomes impossible, including through mathematical elimination. No also applies if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or the final matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. Resolution uses official UEFA information; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2027 UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the 2027 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester United reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Yes10.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No89.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: May 9, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts have identical rules and differ only by club. Yes applies if the named club reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final. No applies once reaching the final becomes impossible, including through mathematical elimination. No also applies if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or the final matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. Resolution uses official UEFA information; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2027 UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the 2027 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Liverpool reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League final?
Yes10%Bid/ask midpoint
No90%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: May 9, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts have identical rules and differ only by club. Yes applies if the named club reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final. No applies once reaching the final becomes impossible, including through mathematical elimination. No also applies if the tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or the final matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. Resolution uses official UEFA information; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the 2027 UEFA Champions League final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the 2027 UEFA Champions League final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
These Polymarket contracts ask whether a specific club reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League final, not whether it wins the tournament. Reaching the final is sufficient for Yes, subject to the exceptions in the rules.
Which clubs this selection covers
This explainer covers separate contracts for Paris Saint-Germain, Aston Villa, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool. Their conditions are identical; only the club being assessed changes. This selection is not presented as the event’s complete list of contracts.
What produces Yes or No
Yes means the named team reaches the 2027 Champions League final. Winning the final is not required. If reaching the final becomes impossible for that club at any point—for example, through mathematical elimination—the associated market resolves to No.
Each contract tests its own club’s qualification for the final rather than selecting a single winner from this group. The contracts should therefore not be presented as mutually exclusive alternatives, and their Yes prices should not be added together.
Cancellation, postponement and the cutoff
The rules specify No if the 2027 Champions League is cancelled, postponed beyond June 19, 2027, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET), or if the final matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. No can therefore result from more than a particular club’s elimination.
The contract data also lists an end date of May 9, 2027, at 23:59 UTC. That does not replace the June cutoff in the rules or prove that an outcome has been determined: trading closure and confirmed resolution are distinct states.
Which information determines the result
The resolution source is official information from UEFA. The rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used. This provision is the same for all six selected contracts.
