Yes means the named team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal. The market can resolve No earlier if the team can no longer advance; cancellation, postponement beyond the stated cutoff, or no declared semifinal matchup by then also leads to No.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Trading open
Will Aston Villa reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Trading open
Will Arsenal reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Trading open
Will Manchester City reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Trading open
Will Manchester United reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Trading open
Will Liverpool reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Market estimate / Yes
51.5%
7 days+12.5 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 13, 2026 — Oct 20, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 51.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Yes51.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No48.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Apr 18, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market resolves Yes if the named team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal. No applies if advancement becomes impossible; it is also specified if the tournament is canceled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the semifinal matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. The resolution source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Aston Villa reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Yes10%Bid/ask midpoint
No90.1%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Apr 18, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market resolves Yes if the named team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal. No applies if advancement becomes impossible; it is also specified if the tournament is canceled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the semifinal matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. The resolution source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Each selected market resolves Yes if the named team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal. No applies if advancement becomes impossible; it is also specified if the tournament is canceled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the semifinal matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. The resolution source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Arsenal reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Yes42.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No57.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Apr 18, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market resolves Yes if the named team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal. No applies if advancement becomes impossible; it is also specified if the tournament is canceled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the semifinal matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. The resolution source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester City reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Yes35.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No64.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Apr 18, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market resolves Yes if the named team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal. No applies if advancement becomes impossible; it is also specified if the tournament is canceled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the semifinal matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. The resolution source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester United reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Yes11%Bid/ask midpoint
No89%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Apr 18, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market resolves Yes if the named team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal. No applies if advancement becomes impossible; it is also specified if the tournament is canceled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the semifinal matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. The resolution source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Liverpool reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Yes17.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No82.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Apr 18, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market resolves Yes if the named team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal. No applies if advancement becomes impossible; it is also specified if the tournament is canceled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the semifinal matchup has not been declared by that cutoff. The resolution source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to advance to the UEFA Champions League semifinal (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2027 UEFA Champions League is cancelled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Paris Saint-Germain reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Paris Saint-Germain reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
The team does not reach the semifinal; No also applies if advancement becomes impossible or a specified tournament or cutoff exception applies.
Will Aston Villa reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Aston Villa reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
The team does not reach the semifinal; No also applies if advancement becomes impossible or a specified tournament or cutoff exception applies.
Will Arsenal reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Arsenal reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
The team does not reach the semifinal; No also applies if advancement becomes impossible or a specified tournament or cutoff exception applies.
Will Manchester City reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Manchester City reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
The team does not reach the semifinal; No also applies if advancement becomes impossible or a specified tournament or cutoff exception applies.
Will Manchester United reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Manchester United reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
The team does not reach the semifinal; No also applies if advancement becomes impossible or a specified tournament or cutoff exception applies.
Will Liverpool reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?
Liverpool reaches the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal.
The team does not reach the semifinal; No also applies if advancement becomes impossible or a specified tournament or cutoff exception applies.
What counts as reaching the semifinal
Each selected contract concerns one named team: to resolve Yes, that team must reach the 2027 tournament semifinal. It is not a question about winning the tournament or advancing from a particular match.
When No can apply earlier
If at any point it becomes impossible for the named team to reach the semifinal, including after mathematical elimination, its market resolves No. The contract therefore does not require waiting for the semifinal matchup to be announced for this outcome.
Cutoff and resolution source
All selected markets specify No if the 2027 UEFA Champions League is canceled, postponed after May 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the semifinal matchup has not been declared by that deadline. Resolution uses official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The cutoff itself does not prove that a team advanced or was eliminated.
The selected contracts ask separate questions
The selection contains six contracts, each testing whether its named team reaches the semifinal. It does not establish that these are every team contract in the event, nor do the supplied rules say that the outcomes are mutually exclusive.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If Paris Saint-Germain reaches the semifinal, the Yes condition for its contract is met.
Under the rules: The outcome is determined by reaching the semifinal, not by winning the tournament.
If: If it becomes mathematically impossible for Aston Villa to reach the semifinal before then, its market resolves No.
Under the rules: Under the market rule, No can apply before the semifinal matchup is declared.
