A market resolves immediately to “Yes” once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle has a final High of $4,000 or more within that market’s observation window. A price on another exchange or trading pair does not count; without a qualifying candle by the deadline, the outcome is “No.”
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 5 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2026?
Trading open
Will Ethereum hit $4k by March 31, 2027?
Trading open
Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027?
Trading open
Will Ethereum hit $4k by September 30, 2027?
Trading open
Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
5%
7 days-3.5 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 12, 2026 — Oct 19, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
READ THIS EVENT
What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2026?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2026?
Yes5%Bid/ask midpoint
No95%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 05:00:00 AM UTC
Each market resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on the stated date has a final High of at least $4,000; if no such candle occurs in that period, it resolves No. Only data for the specified Binance pair counts, not other exchanges, pairs, or spot markets. The markets differ by deadline.
Original source rules (English)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Contract deadline · per API: Apr 1, 2027, 04:00:00 AM UTC
Each market resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on the stated date has a final High of at least $4,000; if no such candle occurs in that period, it resolves No. Only data for the specified Binance pair counts, not other exchanges, pairs, or spot markets. The markets differ by deadline.
Original source rules (English)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Contract deadline · per API: Jul 1, 2027, 04:00:00 AM UTC
Each market resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on the stated date has a final High of at least $4,000; if no such candle occurs in that period, it resolves No. Only data for the specified Binance pair counts, not other exchanges, pairs, or spot markets. The markets differ by deadline.
Original source rules (English)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 1, 2027, 04:00:00 AM UTC
Each market resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on the stated date has a final High of at least $4,000; if no such candle occurs in that period, it resolves No. Only data for the specified Binance pair counts, not other exchanges, pairs, or spot markets. The markets differ by deadline.
Original source rules (English)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2028, 05:00:00 AM UTC
Each market resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on the stated date has a final High of at least $4,000; if no such candle occurs in that period, it resolves No. Only data for the specified Binance pair counts, not other exchanges, pairs, or spot markets. The markets differ by deadline.
Original source rules (English)
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $4,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Each market resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on the stated date has a final High of at least $4,000; if no such candle occurs in that period, it resolves No. Only data for the specified Binance pair counts, not other exchanges, pairs, or spot markets. The markets differ by deadline.
PolymarketStars does not execute trades. Platform availability and terms are determined by Polymarket.
Resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, has a final High of at least $4,000.
There is no qualifying Binance ETH/USDT candle with a final High of at least $4,000 during that period.
Will Ethereum hit $4k by March 31, 2027?
Resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2027, has a final High of at least $4,000.
There is no qualifying Binance ETH/USDT candle with a final High of at least $4,000 during that period.
Will Ethereum hit $4k by June 30, 2027?
Resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2027, has a final High of at least $4,000.
There is no qualifying Binance ETH/USDT candle with a final High of at least $4,000 during that period.
Will Ethereum hit $4k by September 30, 2027?
Resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2027, has a final High of at least $4,000.
There is no qualifying Binance ETH/USDT candle with a final High of at least $4,000 during that period.
Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027?
Resolves immediately to Yes once a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle from market creation through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, has a final High of at least $4,000.
There is no qualifying Binance ETH/USDT candle with a final High of at least $4,000 during that period.
What counts as reaching the threshold
The rule checks Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candles: one candle with a final High of $4,000 or more is enough. This is an intraperiod high, not a requirement for the candle to close above the threshold.
The specified source is Binance’s ETH/USDT chart set to one-minute intervals. Prices from other exchanges, other trading pairs, and spot markets are excluded.
Five markets, five deadlines
Each selected contract checks from the market’s creation through 11:59 PM ET on the date in its question. The dates run from December 31, 2026, through December 31, 2027. The same qualifying candle may satisfy several deadlines if it falls within each contract’s observation window.
Once a qualifying final High is established, the rule calls for immediate resolution to “Yes,” without waiting for the deadline. If there is no qualifying candle by the specified time, the rule gives “No.” The end date alone does not establish an outcome.
How to distinguish the contracts
The selected markets differ in their cutoff dates, not in the threshold or measurement method: all use the same price threshold, source, and candle interval. A later cutoff allows more time for the condition to be met, but does not establish a future result.
This explanation covers only the listed markets. Their outcomes should not be treated as mutually exclusive, and their Yes probabilities should not be added together; the source does not establish that relationship.
Conditional reading examples
If a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle has a final High of exactly $4,000 within a market’s observation window, the “Yes” condition is met and the market resolves immediately to “Yes”: the rule includes equality with the threshold.
If ETH/USDT reaches $4,000 only on another exchange and there is no qualifying High in the specified Binance ETH/USDT candles during the observation window, the outcome is “No.” Another exchange’s price cannot replace the specified source.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If a Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle has a final High of exactly $4,000 within a market’s observation window.
Under the rules: The “Yes” condition is met and the market resolves immediately to “Yes”: the rule includes equality with the threshold.
If: If ETH/USDT reaches $4,000 only on another exchange and there is no qualifying High in the specified Binance ETH/USDT candles during the observation window.
Under the rules: The outcome is “No.” Another exchange’s price cannot replace the specified source.
