How Polymarket’s Alaska Senate winner markets resolve
A guide to Yes and No in the selected markets for six candidates, the sources used to determine the winner, and the exception if results are not confirmed by the stated cutoff.
The selected contracts ask separately whether each of six named candidates will win the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election. The rules include any run-offs and determine the result through agreement among three news sources or, if they do not call the race for the same candidate, through official certification.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Trading open
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Trading open
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Trading open
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Trading open
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Trading open
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
25.5%
7 days-2 pp
30 days-7 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 11, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 25.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Yes25.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No74.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether its named candidate wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. Results must be confirmed by July 31, 2027; otherwise the market resolves to “Other.” The primary sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC: the market resolves when all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification is the basis for resolution. The rules do not explain whether the names Dan Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. refer to the same person.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether its named candidate wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. Results must be confirmed by July 31, 2027; otherwise the market resolves to “Other.” The primary sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC: the market resolves when all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification is the basis for resolution. The rules do not explain whether the names Dan Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. refer to the same person.
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Each selected contract resolves according to whether its named candidate wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. Results must be confirmed by July 31, 2027; otherwise the market resolves to “Other.” The primary sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC: the market resolves when all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification is the basis for resolution. The rules do not explain whether the names Dan Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. refer to the same person.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Yes73.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No26.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether its named candidate wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. Results must be confirmed by July 31, 2027; otherwise the market resolves to “Other.” The primary sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC: the market resolves when all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification is the basis for resolution. The rules do not explain whether the names Dan Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. refer to the same person.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether its named candidate wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. Results must be confirmed by July 31, 2027; otherwise the market resolves to “Other.” The primary sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC: the market resolves when all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification is the basis for resolution. The rules do not explain whether the names Dan Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. refer to the same person.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether its named candidate wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. Results must be confirmed by July 31, 2027; otherwise the market resolves to “Other.” The primary sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC: the market resolves when all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification is the basis for resolution. The rules do not explain whether the names Dan Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. refer to the same person.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether its named candidate wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. Results must be confirmed by July 31, 2027; otherwise the market resolves to “Other.” The primary sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC: the market resolves when all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not, official certification is the basis for resolution. The rules do not explain whether the names Dan Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. refer to the same person.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
47.9%
+7.6 pp · 7 days
Event volume $153M
Apr 19, 2027
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
What Yes or No means in each contract
Yes means the named candidate wins the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. No means that candidate does not win. These are separate Yes/No contracts for Dan Sullivan, Ann Diener, Mary Peltola, Dustin Darden, Richard Grayson, and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
The selection contains separate markets for “Dan Sullivan” and “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” The supplied rules do not explain whether those names refer to the same person, so they should not be combined or treated as one contract. This selection covers only the listed markets and does not claim to include every contract in the event.
How the winner is determined
The markets resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, which the rules say is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Any run-offs are included. The scheduled date by itself does not establish the outcome.
The named resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves when all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not call the race for the same candidate, the result is based on official certification.
Exception if results are not confirmed
If the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to “Other.” This is an explicit exception in the rules; it does not automatically mean that any candidate listed in this selection won or lost.
Why this is not one combined winner market
Each selected market asks about a particular candidate, and the rules do not say that the listed contracts exhaust all possible outcomes. A Yes in one contract is therefore not a reason to add together, or assume mutual exclusivity among, the Yes prices in the others. The specific question and the shared resolution rules matter for each contract.
