Who will win Argentina’s 2027 presidential election?
How selected markets on Argentina’s 2027 presidential election resolve, including a possible runoff, the sources used for results and the Other exception.
Yes means the named candidate wins Argentina’s next presidential election; any potential runoff is included. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Trading open
Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Trading open
Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Trading open
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Trading open
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Trading open
Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Market estimate / Yes
48%
7 days-7.5 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 12, 2026 — Oct 19, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
READ THIS EVENT
What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 48%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Yes48%Bid/ask midpoint
No52%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether the named candidate wins Argentina’s next presidential election, scheduled for October 24, 2027; any potential runoff is included. The basis is a consensus of credible reporting, and in case of ambiguity, solely official results reported by Argentine government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Original source rules (English)
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Yes0.2%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether the named candidate wins Argentina’s next presidential election, scheduled for October 24, 2027; any potential runoff is included. The basis is a consensus of credible reporting, and in case of ambiguity, solely official results reported by Argentine government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Original source rules (English)
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Yes0.2%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether the named candidate wins Argentina’s next presidential election, scheduled for October 24, 2027; any potential runoff is included. The basis is a consensus of credible reporting, and in case of ambiguity, solely official results reported by Argentine government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Original source rules (English)
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Yes32.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No67.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether the named candidate wins Argentina’s next presidential election, scheduled for October 24, 2027; any potential runoff is included. The basis is a consensus of credible reporting, and in case of ambiguity, solely official results reported by Argentine government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Original source rules (English)
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Yes12.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No87.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether the named candidate wins Argentina’s next presidential election, scheduled for October 24, 2027; any potential runoff is included. The basis is a consensus of credible reporting, and in case of ambiguity, solely official results reported by Argentine government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Original source rules (English)
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Yes0.4%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.6%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2027, 03:59:00 AM UTC
Each selected contract resolves according to whether the named candidate wins Argentina’s next presidential election, scheduled for October 24, 2027; any potential runoff is included. The basis is a consensus of credible reporting, and in case of ambiguity, solely official results reported by Argentine government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Original source rules (English)
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Each selected contract resolves according to whether the named candidate wins Argentina’s next presidential election, scheduled for October 24, 2027; any potential runoff is included. The basis is a consensus of credible reporting, and in case of ambiguity, solely official results reported by Argentine government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
PolymarketStars does not execute trades. Platform availability and terms are determined by Polymarket.
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Javier Milei wins Argentina’s next presidential election, including any potential runoff.
Milei is not determined to be the winner; if results are not definitively known by the stated cutoff, the separate Other outcome applies.
Will Juan Grabois win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Juan Grabois wins Argentina’s next presidential election, including any potential runoff.
Grabois is not determined to be the winner; if results are not definitively known by the stated cutoff, the separate Other outcome applies.
Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Esteban Bullrich wins Argentina’s next presidential election, including any potential runoff.
Bullrich is not determined to be the winner; if results are not definitively known by the stated cutoff, the separate Other outcome applies.
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Axel Kicillof wins Argentina’s next presidential election, including any potential runoff.
Kicillof is not determined to be the winner; if results are not definitively known by the stated cutoff, the separate Other outcome applies.
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Sergio Massa wins Argentina’s next presidential election, including any potential runoff.
Massa is not determined to be the winner; if results are not definitively known by the stated cutoff, the separate Other outcome applies.
Will Juan Schiaretti win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Juan Schiaretti wins Argentina’s next presidential election, including any potential runoff.
Schiaretti is not determined to be the winner; if results are not definitively known by the stated cutoff, the separate Other outcome applies.
How the winner is determined
The election is scheduled for October 24, 2027. The contract covers the winner of the next Argentine presidential election, including any potential runoff—not just the first-round result.
Which results govern resolution
The basis is a consensus of credible reporting on the election results. If there is ambiguity, resolution relies solely on official results reported by Argentine government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral and the Dirección Nacional Electoral.
What Other means
If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. This is a separate exception in the rules: the arrival of a deadline or the end of voting alone does not establish that a named candidate won.
The selected contracts are not a complete list of outcomes
This selection contains six separate markets on named candidates. The rules do not say that these are the only possible candidates or outcomes, so No on one candidate does not by itself mean Yes on another.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If the named candidate wins a runoff, that satisfies the Yes condition because any potential runoff is included.
Under the rules: The market resolves based on the winner of the presidential election, not only the first-round result.
If: If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the Other rule applies.
Under the rules: Neither the election date passing nor voting ending is enough on its own to establish that a named candidate won.
