0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 22?
Trading open
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 22?
Trading open
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 22?
Trading open
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 22?
Trading open
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 22?
Trading open
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 22?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 22?
Market estimate / Yes
99.1%
7 days—
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 15, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 22?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 99.1%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 22?
Yes99.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No0.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 22, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For each selected threshold—$72,000, $74,000, $76,000, $78,000, $80,000 or $82,000—Yes requires the final Close of the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 noon ET on October 22, 2026 to be strictly above that threshold. Otherwise, including equality, the result is No. The source is Binance BTC/USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected; other exchanges and pairs do not count. Precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 22?
Yes97.6%Bid/ask midpoint
No2.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 22, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For each selected threshold—$72,000, $74,000, $76,000, $78,000, $80,000 or $82,000—Yes requires the final Close of the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 noon ET on October 22, 2026 to be strictly above that threshold. Otherwise, including equality, the result is No. The source is Binance BTC/USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected; other exchanges and pairs do not count. Precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
For each selected threshold—$72,000, $74,000, $76,000, $78,000, $80,000 or $82,000—Yes requires the final Close of the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 noon ET on October 22, 2026 to be strictly above that threshold. Otherwise, including equality, the result is No. The source is Binance BTC/USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected; other exchanges and pairs do not count. Precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolymarketStars does not execute trades. Platform availability and terms are determined by Polymarket.
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Context & dates
Source
Polymarket
Full event volume, USD
$57K
24-hour event volume, USD
$17.2K
Retrieved
Oct 18, 2026, 02:19:40 PM UTC
Source observation
Not specified by source
Event date
Not specified by source
Contract deadline · per API
Oct 22, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
Result confirmed
Not specified by source
Data quality and market status are separate. An open or resolved market may have a stale snapshot.
A passed deadline alone does not confirm the result.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 22?
Yes95.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 22, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For each selected threshold—$72,000, $74,000, $76,000, $78,000, $80,000 or $82,000—Yes requires the final Close of the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 noon ET on October 22, 2026 to be strictly above that threshold. Otherwise, including equality, the result is No. The source is Binance BTC/USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected; other exchanges and pairs do not count. Precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 22?
Yes87.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No12.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 22, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For each selected threshold—$72,000, $74,000, $76,000, $78,000, $80,000 or $82,000—Yes requires the final Close of the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 noon ET on October 22, 2026 to be strictly above that threshold. Otherwise, including equality, the result is No. The source is Binance BTC/USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected; other exchanges and pairs do not count. Precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 22?
Yes69.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No30.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 22, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For each selected threshold—$72,000, $74,000, $76,000, $78,000, $80,000 or $82,000—Yes requires the final Close of the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 noon ET on October 22, 2026 to be strictly above that threshold. Otherwise, including equality, the result is No. The source is Binance BTC/USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected; other exchanges and pairs do not count. Precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 22?
Yes42.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No57.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 22, 2026, 04:00:00 PM UTC
For each selected threshold—$72,000, $74,000, $76,000, $78,000, $80,000 or $82,000—Yes requires the final Close of the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 noon ET on October 22, 2026 to be strictly above that threshold. Otherwise, including equality, the result is No. The source is Binance BTC/USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected; other exchanges and pairs do not count. Precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
These selected Polymarket contracts ask whether Bitcoin will be strictly above each specified threshold on October 22, 2026. The deciding observation is not the day's high, but the final Close of the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle closing at 12:00 noon ET.
Which thresholds are covered
This explainer covers six selected contracts: above $72,000, $74,000, $76,000, $78,000, $80,000 and $82,000. This is a selection, not a claim to cover the full event. These contracts share the same source and observation time; their comparison thresholds differ.
What produces Yes or No
Each contract resolves to Yes only if the specified candle's final Close is strictly higher than its threshold. A price exactly at or below the threshold means No. Touching or exceeding the threshold at another time does not satisfy the condition: the specified closing price is what matters.
These thresholds are not mutually exclusive outcomes. If the specified Close is above $82,000, all six selected contracts meet their Yes conditions. If the Close is exactly $80,000, the $80,000 contract resolves to No, while the selected contracts with lower thresholds resolve to Yes.
Which candle and source count
The rules specify the one-minute candle closing on October 22 at 12:00 noon ET, not the candle starting at that time. The source is Binance's BTC/USDT pair, with “1m” and “Candles” selected; the relevant field is the final Close.
Prices from other exchanges or trading pairs do not substitute for this source. Although the questions express the thresholds in dollars, the rules specifically require Binance BTC/USDT. Comparison precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Observation time is not confirmed resolution
The candle's closing time defines the observation used to test the condition, but reaching that time does not itself prove that the market has been finally resolved. Trading closure, a proposed result, a disputed result and confirmed resolution are distinct states.
