Yes requires the named candidate to win within the specified margin bracket, measured using the valid-vote shares of the top two candidates. An exact boundary goes to the higher bracket; the supplied text does not establish how the specified Other outcomes settle the binary Yes/No contracts.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Trading open
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Trading open
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Trading open
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Trading open
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Trading open
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Market estimate / Yes
3.7%
7 days+1.6 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 12, 2026 — Oct 19, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 3.7%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Yes3.7%Bid/ask midpoint
No96.4%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 26, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The margin is the absolute difference between the top two candidates’ valid-vote shares, each calculated from all valid votes. Exact boundaries go to the higher bracket. Supplied Bolsonaro brackets are below 4, from 4 to below 8, from 8 to below 12, and at least 12 percentage points; supplied Lula brackets are below 4 and from 4 to below 8. A tie, another candidate winning, or no definitive result by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET leads to Other; its binary Yes/No treatment is not explained. Resolution requires the official count; a recount begun before officialization must finish and the vote must become official. The rules cite a consensus of credible reporting, with official TSE results alone controlling in cases of ambiguity.
Original source rules (English)
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The margin is the absolute difference between the top two candidates’ valid-vote shares, each calculated from all valid votes. Exact boundaries go to the higher bracket. Supplied Bolsonaro brackets are below 4, from 4 to below 8, from 8 to below 12, and at least 12 percentage points; supplied Lula brackets are below 4 and from 4 to below 8. A tie, another candidate winning, or no definitive result by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET leads to Other; its binary Yes/No treatment is not explained. Resolution requires the official count; a recount begun before officialization must finish and the vote must become official. The rules cite a consensus of credible reporting, with official TSE results alone controlling in cases of ambiguity.
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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Yes8.6%Bid/ask midpoint
No91.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 26, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The margin is the absolute difference between the top two candidates’ valid-vote shares, each calculated from all valid votes. Exact boundaries go to the higher bracket. Supplied Bolsonaro brackets are below 4, from 4 to below 8, from 8 to below 12, and at least 12 percentage points; supplied Lula brackets are below 4 and from 4 to below 8. A tie, another candidate winning, or no definitive result by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET leads to Other; its binary Yes/No treatment is not explained. Resolution requires the official count; a recount begun before officialization must finish and the vote must become official. The rules cite a consensus of credible reporting, with official TSE results alone controlling in cases of ambiguity.
Original source rules (English)
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Yes26.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No73.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 26, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The margin is the absolute difference between the top two candidates’ valid-vote shares, each calculated from all valid votes. Exact boundaries go to the higher bracket. Supplied Bolsonaro brackets are below 4, from 4 to below 8, from 8 to below 12, and at least 12 percentage points; supplied Lula brackets are below 4 and from 4 to below 8. A tie, another candidate winning, or no definitive result by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET leads to Other; its binary Yes/No treatment is not explained. Resolution requires the official count; a recount begun before officialization must finish and the vote must become official. The rules cite a consensus of credible reporting, with official TSE results alone controlling in cases of ambiguity.
Original source rules (English)
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Yes39%Bid/ask midpoint
No61%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 26, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The margin is the absolute difference between the top two candidates’ valid-vote shares, each calculated from all valid votes. Exact boundaries go to the higher bracket. Supplied Bolsonaro brackets are below 4, from 4 to below 8, from 8 to below 12, and at least 12 percentage points; supplied Lula brackets are below 4 and from 4 to below 8. A tie, another candidate winning, or no definitive result by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET leads to Other; its binary Yes/No treatment is not explained. Resolution requires the official count; a recount begun before officialization must finish and the vote must become official. The rules cite a consensus of credible reporting, with official TSE results alone controlling in cases of ambiguity.
Original source rules (English)
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Yes19.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No80.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 26, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The margin is the absolute difference between the top two candidates’ valid-vote shares, each calculated from all valid votes. Exact boundaries go to the higher bracket. Supplied Bolsonaro brackets are below 4, from 4 to below 8, from 8 to below 12, and at least 12 percentage points; supplied Lula brackets are below 4 and from 4 to below 8. A tie, another candidate winning, or no definitive result by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET leads to Other; its binary Yes/No treatment is not explained. Resolution requires the official count; a recount begun before officialization must finish and the vote must become official. The rules cite a consensus of credible reporting, with official TSE results alone controlling in cases of ambiguity.
Original source rules (English)
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Yes1%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.1%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 26, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The margin is the absolute difference between the top two candidates’ valid-vote shares, each calculated from all valid votes. Exact boundaries go to the higher bracket. Supplied Bolsonaro brackets are below 4, from 4 to below 8, from 8 to below 12, and at least 12 percentage points; supplied Lula brackets are below 4 and from 4 to below 8. A tie, another candidate winning, or no definitive result by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET leads to Other; its binary Yes/No treatment is not explained. Resolution requires the official count; a recount begun before officialization must finish and the vote must become official. The rules cite a consensus of credible reporting, with official TSE results alone controlling in cases of ambiguity.
Original source rules (English)
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
48.3%
+8.3 pp · 7 days
Event volume $153.4M
Apr 19, 2027
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
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POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
What Yes and No mean
Conditions of the selected event contracts
Contract question
Yes
No
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Bolsonaro wins by at least 12 percentage points of valid votes.
Bolsonaro wins by less than 12 points, or Lula wins. Binary settlement for Other—a tie, another candidate winning, or no definitive result by the specified deadline—is not established.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Bolsonaro wins by at least 8 but less than 12 percentage points.
Bolsonaro wins outside this bracket, or Lula wins. Binary settlement for Other, including a tie, another winner and the deadline exception, is not established.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Bolsonaro wins by at least 4 but less than 8 percentage points.
Bolsonaro wins outside this bracket, or Lula wins. Binary settlement for Other, including a tie, another winner and the deadline exception, is not established.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Bolsonaro wins by a positive margin below 4 percentage points.
Bolsonaro wins by at least 4 points, or Lula wins. Binary settlement for Other, including a tie, another winner and the deadline exception, is not established.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Lula wins by a positive margin below 4 percentage points.
Lula wins by at least 4 points, or Bolsonaro wins. Binary settlement for Other, including a tie, another winner and the deadline exception, is not established.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Lula wins by at least 4 but less than 8 percentage points.
Lula wins outside this bracket, or Bolsonaro wins. Binary settlement for Other, including a tie, another winner and the deadline exception, is not established.
What the margin measures
The second round is scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each of the top two candidates’ shares is calculated by dividing their valid votes by all valid votes cast. The margin is the absolute difference between those shares in percentage points, not a raw vote gap or a share of all ballots.
Bracket boundaries: a worked reading
If the official count shows Bolsonaro winning by exactly 8 percentage points, that result meets the 8–12% bracket rather than the 4–8% bracket. This follows the rule assigning an exact boundary to the higher bracket; the same principle applies at 4 and 12 percentage points.
Official results, recounts and Other
Resolution requires the official vote count. If a recount begins before the total becomes official, the market remains open until the recount is complete and the vote is made official. The rules refer to a consensus of credible reporting and, in cases of ambiguity, solely to official results from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, the TSE.
Suppose the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes: the rules call for Other, not a small-margin bracket. Other also applies if someone other than Bolsonaro or Lula wins, or if the result is not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The supplied text does not explain how Other maps to binary Yes/No settlement, so it cannot automatically be treated as No.
Scope of this article
This article covers the six supplied contracts: four Bolsonaro-winning brackets and two Lula-winning brackets. This describes the selection, without making a claim about the event’s complete market lineup.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: Suppose the official count shows Bolsonaro winning by exactly 8 percentage points.
Under the rules: That result meets the 8–12% bracket rather than the 4–8% bracket because an exact boundary goes to the higher bracket.
If: Suppose the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes.
Under the rules: The rules call for Other, not a small-margin bracket. The supplied text does not establish how Other maps to binary Yes/No settlement.
