California governor election winner in 2026: contract conditions
An explanation of six candidate contracts, Yes and No conditions, agreement among AP, Fox News and NBC, official certification, and the Other exception.
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
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Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
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Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
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Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?
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Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
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Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
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These contracts concern the winner of the California gubernatorial election, scheduled in the rules for November 3, 2026. Resolution does not follow simply from reaching election day: the rules specify sources for confirming the winner and a separate exception if results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027.
Which contracts are covered
This selection covers questions about Rick Caruso, Alex Padilla, Katie Porter, Antonio Villaraigosa, Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra winning. It is an explanation of six selected contracts, not a complete list of the event's contracts. Their supplied rules are identical; the distinction is the candidate named in each question.
What Yes and No mean
In the ordinary case of a confirmed election result, Yes means the candidate named in the question won, while No means another candidate won. For example, the Katie Porter contract asks specifically whether she wins, not whether any candidate included in this selection wins.
Who confirms the winner
The rules name the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC. The market resolves once all three call the race for the same candidate. A call by only one or two does not meet that condition. If all three have not called the race for the same candidate, resolution is based on official certification.
The deadline and the Other ambiguity
If election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the rules specify resolution to Other. Yet each of the six supplied contracts lists only Yes and No as outcomes. The text does not explain how Other maps to those binary outcomes, so it does not establish that this exception automatically means No for all six contracts.
A contract's end date is not itself proof that its outcome has been determined. Reading these markets requires distinguishing the end of trading from confirmed resolution under the specified sources and exceptions.
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
0.1%
7 days0 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 10, 2026 — Oct 17, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 0.1%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All six selected contracts share the same rules and differ by the named candidate. They concern the winner of the California gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026. A confirmed win by the named candidate means Yes; a win by another candidate means No. Resolution occurs when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; otherwise it is based on official certification. If results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the rules specify Other. The supplied text does not explain how that outcome maps to the listed Yes and No outcomes.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All six selected contracts share the same rules and differ by the named candidate. They concern the winner of the California gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026. A confirmed win by the named candidate means Yes; a win by another candidate means No. Resolution occurs when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; otherwise it is based on official certification. If results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the rules specify Other. The supplied text does not explain how that outcome maps to the listed Yes and No outcomes.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All six selected contracts share the same rules and differ by the named candidate. They concern the winner of the California gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026. A confirmed win by the named candidate means Yes; a win by another candidate means No. Resolution occurs when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; otherwise it is based on official certification. If results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the rules specify Other. The supplied text does not explain how that outcome maps to the listed Yes and No outcomes.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All six selected contracts share the same rules and differ by the named candidate. They concern the winner of the California gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026. A confirmed win by the named candidate means Yes; a win by another candidate means No. Resolution occurs when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; otherwise it is based on official certification. If results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the rules specify Other. The supplied text does not explain how that outcome maps to the listed Yes and No outcomes.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes4%Bid/ask midpoint
No96%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All six selected contracts share the same rules and differ by the named candidate. They concern the winner of the California gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026. A confirmed win by the named candidate means Yes; a win by another candidate means No. Resolution occurs when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; otherwise it is based on official certification. If results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the rules specify Other. The supplied text does not explain how that outcome maps to the listed Yes and No outcomes.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes95.8%Bid/ask midpoint
No4.3%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All six selected contracts share the same rules and differ by the named candidate. They concern the winner of the California gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026. A confirmed win by the named candidate means Yes; a win by another candidate means No. Resolution occurs when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; otherwise it is based on official certification. If results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the rules specify Other. The supplied text does not explain how that outcome maps to the listed Yes and No outcomes.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
All six selected contracts share the same rules and differ by the named candidate. They concern the winner of the California gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026. A confirmed win by the named candidate means Yes; a win by another candidate means No. Resolution occurs when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; otherwise it is based on official certification. If results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the rules specify Other. The supplied text does not explain how that outcome maps to the listed Yes and No outcomes.
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