Second place goes to the party or coalition with the second-highest number of Knesset seats in the election scheduled for October 27, 2026. If seats are tied, the higher valid-vote total ranks higher; if that is also tied, listed-name alphabetical order applies, and if results are not definitively known by the stated cutoff, the market resolves to “Other.”
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Trading open
Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Trading open
Will Shas win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Trading open
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Trading open
Will The Democrats win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Trading open
Will Otzma Yehudit win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Market estimate / Yes
70.5%
7 days+24.5 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 12, 2026 — Oct 19, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 70.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes70.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No29.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The markets ask which party or coalition will rank second by Knesset seats in the election expected on October 27, 2026. Seat ties are broken by valid-vote totals, then alphabetical order of listed names. Results are based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, official Israeli government results, including those of the Central Election Committee, control. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The markets ask which party or coalition will rank second by Knesset seats in the election expected on October 27, 2026. Seat ties are broken by valid-vote totals, then alphabetical order of listed names. Results are based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, official Israeli government results, including those of the Central Election Committee, control. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Yes1.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No98.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The markets ask which party or coalition will rank second by Knesset seats in the election expected on October 27, 2026. Seat ties are broken by valid-vote totals, then alphabetical order of listed names. Results are based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, official Israeli government results, including those of the Central Election Committee, control. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Will Shas win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The markets ask which party or coalition will rank second by Knesset seats in the election expected on October 27, 2026. Seat ties are broken by valid-vote totals, then alphabetical order of listed names. Results are based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, official Israeli government results, including those of the Central Election Committee, control. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes27%Bid/ask midpoint
No73%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The markets ask which party or coalition will rank second by Knesset seats in the election expected on October 27, 2026. Seat ties are broken by valid-vote totals, then alphabetical order of listed names. Results are based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, official Israeli government results, including those of the Central Election Committee, control. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Will The Democrats win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The markets ask which party or coalition will rank second by Knesset seats in the election expected on October 27, 2026. Seat ties are broken by valid-vote totals, then alphabetical order of listed names. Results are based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, official Israeli government results, including those of the Central Election Committee, control. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Will Otzma Yehudit win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yes0.2%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 AM UTC
The markets ask which party or coalition will rank second by Knesset seats in the election expected on October 27, 2026. Seat ties are broken by valid-vote totals, then alphabetical order of listed names. Results are based on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, official Israeli government results, including those of the Central Election Committee, control. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
46.3%
+4.2 pp · 7 days
Event volume $154M
Apr 19, 2027
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
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POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
What Yes and No mean
Conditions of the selected event contracts
Contract question
Yes
No
Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Likud finishes second after applying the valid-vote and alphabetical tie-breakers.
Likud does not finish second under that ranking; if results are not definitive by the cutoff, the outcome is “Other.”
Will Together win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Together finishes second after applying the valid-vote and alphabetical tie-breakers.
Together does not finish second under that ranking; if results are not definitive by the cutoff, the outcome is “Other.”
Will Shas win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Shas finishes second after applying the valid-vote and alphabetical tie-breakers.
Shas does not finish second under that ranking; if results are not definitive by the cutoff, the outcome is “Other.”
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Yashar finishes second after applying the valid-vote and alphabetical tie-breakers.
Yashar does not finish second under that ranking; if results are not definitive by the cutoff, the outcome is “Other.”
Will The Democrats win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
The Democrats finish second after applying the valid-vote and alphabetical tie-breakers.
The Democrats do not finish second under that ranking; if results are not definitive by the cutoff, the outcome is “Other.”
Will Otzma Yehudit win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Otzma Yehudit finishes second after applying the valid-vote and alphabetical tie-breakers.
Otzma Yehudit does not finish second under that ranking; if results are not definitive by the cutoff, the outcome is “Other.”
How second place is determined
The primary criterion is the number of Knesset seats won by a party or coalition in this election. If seats are tied, the total number of valid votes breaks the tie: more votes means the higher rank. If votes are also tied, the listed names are ranked alphabetically.
Which results count
Resolution is based on election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If the results are ambiguous, the reference is the official results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee. The criterion is specifically seats in the Knesset, not another measure.
Cutoff and scope of the selected markets
If the election results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.” This is a special fallback outcome, so No in an individual contract should not be read as asserting that another named participant necessarily finished second.
This selection contains six separate contracts, one each for Likud, Together, Shas, Yashar, The Democrats and Otzma Yehudit. They use the same ranking criterion, but the selected contracts do not establish that every possible party, coalition or outcome in the full event is included here.
Conditional example: a seat tie
If two parties tie on seats and one has more valid votes, that party ranks higher.
In this hypothetical, valid votes decide their relative position for the second-place ranking; if they also tie on votes, listed-name alphabetical order applies.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If two parties tie on seats and one has more valid votes, that party ranks higher.
Under the rules: In this hypothetical, valid votes decide their relative position for the second-place ranking; if they also tie on votes, listed-name alphabetical order applies.
