How Polymarket’s Serbia election winner markets resolve
A guide to what “winning the most seats” means in the selected markets, how ties and electoral lists are handled, and which sources determine resolution.
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
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Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
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Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
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Will Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
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Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
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Will Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
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Last successful check:
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Market estimate / Yes
68.5%
7 days+8 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 11, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 68.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes68.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No31.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
For each selected contract, Yes means the named electoral list ranks highest by seats in Serbia’s National Assembly following the election scheduled for October 25, 2026; No means it does not. Ties on seats are broken by valid votes, then alphabetically by listed name. The count is based on seats won by the list as named on the ballot and in official proclamations, regardless of party composition or how its members later organize in the Assembly. Resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting; if results are ambiguous, it relies solely on Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission. If results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election.
Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
For each selected contract, Yes means the named electoral list ranks highest by seats in Serbia’s National Assembly following the election scheduled for October 25, 2026; No means it does not. Ties on seats are broken by valid votes, then alphabetically by listed name. The count is based on seats won by the list as named on the ballot and in official proclamations, regardless of party composition or how its members later organize in the Assembly. Resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting; if results are ambiguous, it relies solely on Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission. If results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
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Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
For each selected contract, Yes means the named electoral list ranks highest by seats in Serbia’s National Assembly following the election scheduled for October 25, 2026; No means it does not. Ties on seats are broken by valid votes, then alphabetically by listed name. The count is based on seats won by the list as named on the ballot and in official proclamations, regardless of party composition or how its members later organize in the Assembly. Resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting; if results are ambiguous, it relies solely on Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission. If results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election.
Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes31.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No68.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
For each selected contract, Yes means the named electoral list ranks highest by seats in Serbia’s National Assembly following the election scheduled for October 25, 2026; No means it does not. Ties on seats are broken by valid votes, then alphabetically by listed name. The count is based on seats won by the list as named on the ballot and in official proclamations, regardless of party composition or how its members later organize in the Assembly. Resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting; if results are ambiguous, it relies solely on Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission. If results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election.
Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Will Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
For each selected contract, Yes means the named electoral list ranks highest by seats in Serbia’s National Assembly following the election scheduled for October 25, 2026; No means it does not. Ties on seats are broken by valid votes, then alphabetically by listed name. The count is based on seats won by the list as named on the ballot and in official proclamations, regardless of party composition or how its members later organize in the Assembly. Resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting; if results are ambiguous, it relies solely on Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission. If results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election.
Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Will Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
For each selected contract, Yes means the named electoral list ranks highest by seats in Serbia’s National Assembly following the election scheduled for October 25, 2026; No means it does not. Ties on seats are broken by valid votes, then alphabetically by listed name. The count is based on seats won by the list as named on the ballot and in official proclamations, regardless of party composition or how its members later organize in the Assembly. Resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting; if results are ambiguous, it relies solely on Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission. If results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election.
Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Will Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No100%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 25, 2026, 11:59:00 PM UTC
For each selected contract, Yes means the named electoral list ranks highest by seats in Serbia’s National Assembly following the election scheduled for October 25, 2026; No means it does not. Ties on seats are broken by valid votes, then alphabetically by listed name. The count is based on seats won by the list as named on the ballot and in official proclamations, regardless of party composition or how its members later organize in the Assembly. Resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting; if results are ambiguous, it relies solely on Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission. If results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the outcome is “Other.”
Original source rules (English)
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election.
Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
47.9%
+7.6 pp · 7 days
Event volume $153M
Apr 19, 2027
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
The selected contracts ask whether a named electoral list will rank first by seats in Serbia’s National Assembly after the parliamentary election scheduled for October 25, 2026. Seats—not votes alone—determine the ranking, and the rules specify how ties are broken and which sources govern resolution.
What Yes or No means
In each of the six selected markets, Yes means the list named in the question finishes highest under the ranking rules. No means that list does not finish highest. This selection covers markets for Aleksandar Vučić, Ivica Dačić, the Student List, Rasim Ljajić, the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians, and Usame Zukorlić; it does not necessarily include every contract in the full event.
These are separate contracts about named lists, not one question with an exhaustive list of outcomes. A No result for one list therefore does not, by itself, identify which other list will finish first.
How first place is determined
The primary criterion is the number of seats in the National Assembly. If lists are tied on seats, the list with more valid votes ranks higher. If they remain tied, the listed names are ranked alphabetically. The winner is the list in the highest position after these rules are applied.
Resolution counts only the seats won by the named electoral list as it appears on the ballot and in official proclamations. The list’s party composition and how its members later organize in the National Assembly do not affect the result.
Results and the uncertainty cutoff
Resolution is based on election results indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If the results are ambiguous, the market relies solely on results reported by Serbia’s Republic Electoral Commission.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.” That fallback does not mean the election date or market closure alone determines the winner.
