Texas Senate election winner in 2026: contract conditions explained
An explanation of selected Polymarket contracts covering party nominees, candidate replacements, independents and the sources used to determine the winner.
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
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Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Trading open
Will Person A win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Trading open
Will Person B win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Trading open
Will Person C win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Trading open
Will Person D win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
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Last successful check:
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
62.5%
7 days-1 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 11, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 62.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Yes62.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No37.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Resolution follows the winner of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A party option resolves Yes if that party's nominee wins and No otherwise. Independents are excluded from the Democratic and Republican options regardless of party affiliations; other options may be added later. The Person A–D contracts ask whether the designated candidate wins, but the packet does not identify those individuals or their parties. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name is updated and the contract follows the replacement nominee. Resolution occurs once Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; without that agreement, official certification is used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Yes37.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No62.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Resolution follows the winner of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A party option resolves Yes if that party's nominee wins and No otherwise. Independents are excluded from the Democratic and Republican options regardless of party affiliations; other options may be added later. The Person A–D contracts ask whether the designated candidate wins, but the packet does not identify those individuals or their parties. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name is updated and the contract follows the replacement nominee. Resolution occurs once Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; without that agreement, official certification is used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Resolution follows the winner of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A party option resolves Yes if that party's nominee wins and No otherwise. Independents are excluded from the Democratic and Republican options regardless of party affiliations; other options may be added later. The Person A–D contracts ask whether the designated candidate wins, but the packet does not identify those individuals or their parties. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name is updated and the contract follows the replacement nominee. Resolution occurs once Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; without that agreement, official certification is used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Resolution follows the winner of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A party option resolves Yes if that party's nominee wins and No otherwise. Independents are excluded from the Democratic and Republican options regardless of party affiliations; other options may be added later. The Person A–D contracts ask whether the designated candidate wins, but the packet does not identify those individuals or their parties. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name is updated and the contract follows the replacement nominee. Resolution occurs once Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; without that agreement, official certification is used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Resolution follows the winner of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A party option resolves Yes if that party's nominee wins and No otherwise. Independents are excluded from the Democratic and Republican options regardless of party affiliations; other options may be added later. The Person A–D contracts ask whether the designated candidate wins, but the packet does not identify those individuals or their parties. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name is updated and the contract follows the replacement nominee. Resolution occurs once Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; without that agreement, official certification is used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 4, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
Resolution follows the winner of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A party option resolves Yes if that party's nominee wins and No otherwise. Independents are excluded from the Democratic and Republican options regardless of party affiliations; other options may be added later. The Person A–D contracts ask whether the designated candidate wins, but the packet does not identify those individuals or their parties. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name is updated and the contract follows the replacement nominee. Resolution occurs once Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; without that agreement, official certification is used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Resolution follows the winner of the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A party option resolves Yes if that party's nominee wins and No otherwise. Independents are excluded from the Democratic and Republican options regardless of party affiliations; other options may be added later. The Person A–D contracts ask whether the designated candidate wins, but the packet does not identify those individuals or their parties. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name is updated and the contract follows the replacement nominee. Resolution occurs once Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; without that agreement, official certification is used.
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This event concerns the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. This selection covers contracts on a Democratic win, a Republican win and options labeled Person A, Person B, Person C and Person D.
When the party contracts resolve Yes or No
The Democratic contract resolves Yes if the Democratic Party's nominee wins; the Republican contract resolves Yes if the Republican Party's nominee wins. If the relevant nominee does not win, that contract resolves No. The result includes any run-offs, rather than only the initial vote.
A loss for one of these parties does not by itself mean a win for the other: the rules allow for other-party and independent candidates. Options for them may be added later, so the selected contracts should not be treated as a complete list of the event's options.
Who counts as a party representative
For a party option, the candidate must be that party's nominee. A candidate running as an independent is not covered by either the Democratic or Republican option, regardless of any affiliation with that party.
Person A–D and candidate replacements
Four selected questions use the labels Person A, Person B, Person C and Person D. The supplied rules do not identify their names or party affiliations. Each asks whether the designated candidate wins: Yes means a win and No means no win, subject to the rule on replacing a party nominee.
A candidate's name in a contract does not necessarily bind it to that individual. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and resolution follows whether the replacement nominee wins.
How the winner is confirmed
The rules name three sources: Associated Press, Fox News and NBC. The market resolves once all three call the race for the same candidate. If there is no matching call from all three, resolution is based on official certification.
The contract's listed end date is not itself proof that the outcome has been determined. Trading closure and final resolution are distinct stages, and the requirement to include any run-offs still applies.
