Yes means the named club finishes last in the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league-phase standings. A club’s market resolves No if it becomes impossible for that club to finish last; if the phase is canceled or not completed by the stated cutoff, the rules specify Other.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish last in UCL league phase?
Trading open
Will Aston Villa finish last in UCL league phase?
Trading open
Will Arsenal finish last in UCL league phase?
Trading open
Will Manchester City finish last in UCL league phase?
Trading open
Will Manchester United finish last in UCL league phase?
Trading open
Will Liverpool finish last in UCL league phase?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish last in UCL league phase?
Market estimate / Yes
1.3%
7 days-0.1 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 13, 2026 — Oct 20, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Paris Saint-Germain finish last in UCL league phase?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 1.3%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish last in UCL league phase?
Yes1.3%Bid/ask midpoint
No98.7%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market is determined by which club finishes last in the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league phase. If the named club becomes unable to finish last, its market resolves No. UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria apply when teams are level on points. If the phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves Other. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes last in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish last in the league phase, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market is determined by which club finishes last in the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league phase. If the named club becomes unable to finish last, its market resolves No. UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria apply when teams are level on points. If the phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves Other. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Each selected market is determined by which club finishes last in the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league phase. If the named club becomes unable to finish last, its market resolves No. UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria apply when teams are level on points. If the phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves Other. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes last in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish last in the league phase, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market is determined by which club finishes last in the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league phase. If the named club becomes unable to finish last, its market resolves No. UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria apply when teams are level on points. If the phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves Other. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes last in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish last in the league phase, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester City finish last in UCL league phase?
Yes1.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No98.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market is determined by which club finishes last in the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league phase. If the named club becomes unable to finish last, its market resolves No. UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria apply when teams are level on points. If the phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves Other. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes last in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish last in the league phase, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester United finish last in UCL league phase?
Yes1.3%Bid/ask midpoint
No98.7%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market is determined by which club finishes last in the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league phase. If the named club becomes unable to finish last, its market resolves No. UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria apply when teams are level on points. If the phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves Other. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes last in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish last in the league phase, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Each selected market is determined by which club finishes last in the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league phase. If the named club becomes unable to finish last, its market resolves No. UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria apply when teams are level on points. If the phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves Other. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes last in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish last in the league phase, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish last in UCL league phase?
Yes if Paris Saint-Germain finishes last in the league-phase standings under UEFA’s ranking.
No if Paris Saint-Germain becomes unable to finish last at any point. If the phase is canceled or not completed by the cutoff, Other applies.
Will Aston Villa finish last in UCL league phase?
Yes if Aston Villa finishes last in the league-phase standings under UEFA’s ranking.
No if Aston Villa becomes unable to finish last at any point. If the phase is canceled or not completed by the cutoff, Other applies.
Will Arsenal finish last in UCL league phase?
Yes if Arsenal finishes last in the league-phase standings under UEFA’s ranking.
No if Arsenal becomes unable to finish last at any point. If the phase is canceled or not completed by the cutoff, Other applies.
Will Manchester City finish last in UCL league phase?
Yes if Manchester City finishes last in the league-phase standings under UEFA’s ranking.
No if Manchester City becomes unable to finish last at any point. If the phase is canceled or not completed by the cutoff, Other applies.
Will Manchester United finish last in UCL league phase?
Yes if Manchester United finishes last in the league-phase standings under UEFA’s ranking.
No if Manchester United becomes unable to finish last at any point. If the phase is canceled or not completed by the cutoff, Other applies.
Will Liverpool finish last in UCL league phase?
Yes if Liverpool finishes last in the league-phase standings under UEFA’s ranking.
No if Liverpool becomes unable to finish last at any point. If the phase is canceled or not completed by the cutoff, Other applies.
What counts as finishing last
The outcome is based on the final league-phase standings for the 2026–27 season, not on a single match or on which club is first eliminated from contention. If two or more teams are level on points, UEFA’s official competition tie-breaker criteria determine their ranking.
When the outcome is No or Other
A market for a particular club resolves No if, at any point, that club can no longer finish last. So No does not necessarily mean the phase has ended and the last-placed team has been definitively established.
There is a separate exception: if the league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves Other. That is not the same as No; the cutoff by itself does not establish that the competition is complete or its result is known.
Resolution source and selected clubs
Official UEFA information is the primary resolution source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This selection includes individual markets for Paris Saint-Germain, Aston Villa, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool; it is not presented as a complete list of every option in the event.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If two or more teams finish the phase level on points, UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria determine their ranking.
Under the rules: The last-place position among teams level on points is determined by UEFA’s published order, not an arbitrary choice.
If: If the league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET,
Under the rules: the market resolves Other rather than No for the named club.
