UEFA Champions League: best league-phase goal difference
How the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league-phase goal-difference leader is determined, which matches count, and how ties and exceptional outcomes work.
These markets ask which club has the best goal difference in the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league phase only. Ties go first to the club with more goals scored, then to the club listed first alphabetically; specified cancellation or delay scenarios can instead resolve to “Other.”
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Trading open
Will Aston Villa finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Trading open
Will Arsenal finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Trading open
Will Manchester City finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Trading open
Will Manchester United finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Trading open
Will Liverpool finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Market estimate / Yes
24%
7 days+10.5 pp
30 days+13 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 12, 2026 — Oct 19, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Paris Saint-Germain finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 24%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Yes24%Bid/ask midpoint
No76%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Only 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league-phase matches count; qualifying, play-off, and knockout matches are excluded. Ties in goal difference are broken by total goals scored, then alphabetical listing. If the phase is shortened or ends early, available official data for completed matches is used; cancellation, postponement after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no official leader by that timeframe leads to “Other.” The source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to the club that finishes the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League with the best goal differential.
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the play-off round, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the club that scored the most total goals in the league phase. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the club that is listed first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Aston Villa finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Yes7.4%
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Only 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league-phase matches count; qualifying, play-off, and knockout matches are excluded. Ties in goal difference are broken by total goals scored, then alphabetical listing. If the phase is shortened or ends early, available official data for completed matches is used; cancellation, postponement after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no official leader by that timeframe leads to “Other.” The source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Bid/ask midpoint
No92.7%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Only 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league-phase matches count; qualifying, play-off, and knockout matches are excluded. Ties in goal difference are broken by total goals scored, then alphabetical listing. If the phase is shortened or ends early, available official data for completed matches is used; cancellation, postponement after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no official leader by that timeframe leads to “Other.” The source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to the club that finishes the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League with the best goal differential.
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the play-off round, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the club that scored the most total goals in the league phase. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the club that is listed first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Arsenal finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Yes3.3%Bid/ask midpoint
No96.7%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Only 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league-phase matches count; qualifying, play-off, and knockout matches are excluded. Ties in goal difference are broken by total goals scored, then alphabetical listing. If the phase is shortened or ends early, available official data for completed matches is used; cancellation, postponement after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no official leader by that timeframe leads to “Other.” The source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to the club that finishes the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League with the best goal differential.
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the play-off round, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the club that scored the most total goals in the league phase. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the club that is listed first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester City finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Yes4.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No96%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Only 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league-phase matches count; qualifying, play-off, and knockout matches are excluded. Ties in goal difference are broken by total goals scored, then alphabetical listing. If the phase is shortened or ends early, available official data for completed matches is used; cancellation, postponement after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no official leader by that timeframe leads to “Other.” The source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to the club that finishes the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League with the best goal differential.
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the play-off round, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the club that scored the most total goals in the league phase. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the club that is listed first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester United finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Yes4.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No95.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Only 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league-phase matches count; qualifying, play-off, and knockout matches are excluded. Ties in goal difference are broken by total goals scored, then alphabetical listing. If the phase is shortened or ends early, available official data for completed matches is used; cancellation, postponement after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no official leader by that timeframe leads to “Other.” The source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to the club that finishes the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League with the best goal differential.
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the play-off round, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the club that scored the most total goals in the league phase. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the club that is listed first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Liverpool finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Yes3.3%Bid/ask midpoint
No96.7%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
Only 2026–27 UEFA Champions League league-phase matches count; qualifying, play-off, and knockout matches are excluded. Ties in goal difference are broken by total goals scored, then alphabetical listing. If the phase is shortened or ends early, available official data for completed matches is used; cancellation, postponement after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no official leader by that timeframe leads to “Other.” The source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to the club that finishes the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League with the best goal differential.
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the play-off round, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the club that scored the most total goals in the league phase. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the club that is listed first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Paris Saint-Germain is selected as the club with the best goal difference after applying the tie-breakers; not if the outcome is “Other.”
Paris Saint-Germain is not selected under the goal-difference and tie-break rules, or the market resolves to “Other.”
Will Aston Villa finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Aston Villa is selected as the club with the best goal difference after applying the tie-breakers; not if the outcome is “Other.”
Aston Villa is not selected under the goal-difference and tie-break rules, or the market resolves to “Other.”
Will Arsenal finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Arsenal is selected as the club with the best goal difference after applying the tie-breakers; not if the outcome is “Other.”
Arsenal is not selected under the goal-difference and tie-break rules, or the market resolves to “Other.”
Will Manchester City finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Manchester City is selected as the club with the best goal difference after applying the tie-breakers; not if the outcome is “Other.”
Manchester City is not selected under the goal-difference and tie-break rules, or the market resolves to “Other.”
Will Manchester United finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Manchester United is selected as the club with the best goal difference after applying the tie-breakers; not if the outcome is “Other.”
Manchester United is not selected under the goal-difference and tie-break rules, or the market resolves to “Other.”
Will Liverpool finish the UCL league phase with the best goal differential?
Liverpool is selected as the club with the best goal difference after applying the tie-breakers; not if the outcome is “Other.”
Liverpool is not selected under the goal-difference and tie-break rules, or the market resolves to “Other.”
Which matches count
Only matches in the 2026–27 league phase count. Qualifying rounds, the play-off round, knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds are excluded, so a club’s results in those matches do not affect this measure.
Tie-breakers and an early end
If clubs are tied for the best goal difference, the club with more total league-phase goals ranks ahead. If they remain tied, the market selects the club listed first alphabetically.
If the league phase is shortened, truncated, or ends early, available official data for completed matches determines the outcome. If it is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no official leader is declared within that timeframe, the market resolves to “Other.”
Resolution source and selected clubs
The stated resolution source is official UEFA information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The selected contracts shown here concern Paris Saint-Germain, Aston Villa, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Liverpool; they should not be treated as an exhaustive list of every contract in the event.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If two clubs finish the league phase tied for the best goal difference,
Under the rules: the club with more goals scored ranks ahead; if total goals are also tied, the club listed first alphabetically is selected.
If: If the league phase is cancelled or postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET,
Under the rules: or no official leader is declared within that timeframe, the market resolves to “Other,” rather than to one of the listed clubs.
