Which clubs will finish 9th–24th in the Champions League league phase?
An explanation of selected Polymarket club contracts: final league-phase positions in the 2026–27 Champions League, Yes and No conditions, exceptions and resolution sources.
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
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Will Aston Villa finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
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Will Arsenal finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
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Will Manchester City finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
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Will Manchester United finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
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Will Liverpool finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
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Last successful check:
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
Market estimate / Yes
16%
7 days-8 pp
30 days-21.5 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 11, 2026 — Oct 18, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Paris Saint-Germain finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 16%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
Yes16%Bid/ask midpoint
No84%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All selected clubs share the same rules: Yes for a final position from 9th through 24th inclusive in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; otherwise No. Only the league phase counts; qualifying, knockout phase play-offs and knockout rounds are excluded. Ties on points follow UEFA's official criteria. An impossible qualifying finish triggers immediate No. Non-participation, withdrawal or expulsion also means No. Cancellation or failure to complete the league phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET means No. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 9th through 24th, inclusive, in the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 9th through 24th in the league phase (e.g. they clinch a place in the top 8, or they are mathematically unable to finish above 25th), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If a listed club does not participate in, withdraws from, or is expelled from the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase, its market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Aston Villa finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
All selected clubs share the same rules: Yes for a final position from 9th through 24th inclusive in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; otherwise No. Only the league phase counts; qualifying, knockout phase play-offs and knockout rounds are excluded. Ties on points follow UEFA's official criteria. An impossible qualifying finish triggers immediate No. Non-participation, withdrawal or expulsion also means No. Cancellation or failure to complete the league phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET means No. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Yes58%Bid/ask midpoint
No42%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All selected clubs share the same rules: Yes for a final position from 9th through 24th inclusive in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; otherwise No. Only the league phase counts; qualifying, knockout phase play-offs and knockout rounds are excluded. Ties on points follow UEFA's official criteria. An impossible qualifying finish triggers immediate No. Non-participation, withdrawal or expulsion also means No. Cancellation or failure to complete the league phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET means No. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 9th through 24th, inclusive, in the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 9th through 24th in the league phase (e.g. they clinch a place in the top 8, or they are mathematically unable to finish above 25th), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If a listed club does not participate in, withdraws from, or is expelled from the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase, its market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All selected clubs share the same rules: Yes for a final position from 9th through 24th inclusive in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; otherwise No. Only the league phase counts; qualifying, knockout phase play-offs and knockout rounds are excluded. Ties on points follow UEFA's official criteria. An impossible qualifying finish triggers immediate No. Non-participation, withdrawal or expulsion also means No. Cancellation or failure to complete the league phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET means No. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 9th through 24th, inclusive, in the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 9th through 24th in the league phase (e.g. they clinch a place in the top 8, or they are mathematically unable to finish above 25th), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If a listed club does not participate in, withdraws from, or is expelled from the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase, its market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester City finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
Yes46%Bid/ask midpoint
No54%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All selected clubs share the same rules: Yes for a final position from 9th through 24th inclusive in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; otherwise No. Only the league phase counts; qualifying, knockout phase play-offs and knockout rounds are excluded. Ties on points follow UEFA's official criteria. An impossible qualifying finish triggers immediate No. Non-participation, withdrawal or expulsion also means No. Cancellation or failure to complete the league phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET means No. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 9th through 24th, inclusive, in the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 9th through 24th in the league phase (e.g. they clinch a place in the top 8, or they are mathematically unable to finish above 25th), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If a listed club does not participate in, withdraws from, or is expelled from the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase, its market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester United finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
Yes66.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No33.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All selected clubs share the same rules: Yes for a final position from 9th through 24th inclusive in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; otherwise No. Only the league phase counts; qualifying, knockout phase play-offs and knockout rounds are excluded. Ties on points follow UEFA's official criteria. An impossible qualifying finish triggers immediate No. Non-participation, withdrawal or expulsion also means No. Cancellation or failure to complete the league phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET means No. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 9th through 24th, inclusive, in the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 9th through 24th in the league phase (e.g. they clinch a place in the top 8, or they are mathematically unable to finish above 25th), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If a listed club does not participate in, withdraws from, or is expelled from the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase, its market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Liverpool finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?
Yes32.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No67.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All selected clubs share the same rules: Yes for a final position from 9th through 24th inclusive in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; otherwise No. Only the league phase counts; qualifying, knockout phase play-offs and knockout rounds are excluded. Ties on points follow UEFA's official criteria. An impossible qualifying finish triggers immediate No. Non-participation, withdrawal or expulsion also means No. Cancellation or failure to complete the league phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET means No. Official UEFA information is the primary source; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 9th through 24th, inclusive, in the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 9th through 24th in the league phase (e.g. they clinch a place in the top 8, or they are mathematically unable to finish above 25th), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
If a listed club does not participate in, withdraws from, or is expelled from the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase, its market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
These contracts ask where a particular club finishes in the final league-phase standings of the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League. Yes requires a finish from 9th through 24th, inclusive. Finishing above or below that range means No.
Which club contracts are covered
This selection covers separate contracts for Paris Saint-Germain, Aston Villa, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool. These are selected contracts, not a complete list of the event's markets. Their rules are the same; the difference is the club whose final position is assessed.
The question does not require choosing a single team: the condition applies separately to each club, and one team finishing within the range does not prevent another from doing so. These contracts should therefore not be read as mutually exclusive choices for one winner.
What counts toward the result
Only league-phase matches count. Qualifying rounds, knockout phase play-offs and all knockout rounds are excluded. The question concerns the final league-phase table, not subsequent progress in the tournament.
Both boundaries are included: 9th and 24th mean Yes, while 8th and 25th mean No. If clubs are level on points, their ranking follows UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria for the competition.
When the rules call for No before the final table
The rules call for immediate resolution to No once finishing 9th through 24th becomes impossible for the club. The stated examples are clinching a top-eight place or becoming mathematically unable to finish above 25th. No can therefore reflect either too high or too low a finish.
If a club does not participate in, withdraws from or is expelled from the 2026–27 Champions League league phase, its contract also resolves to No. Being listed in a contract does not itself establish participation.
Deadline and resolution sources
If the league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the rules require No. This is a specific condition: reaching a date does not by itself prove that a contract has resolved.
Official UEFA information is the primary resolution source. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The contract conditions and their exceptions determine the outcome, rather than trading closure itself.
