The outcomes use the change in IPCA over the 12 months ending in December 2026, as reported in IBGE’s monthly release. If data for that month are not released by the time the following month’s data are due, the rules call for using the last available month.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%?
Trading open
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%?
Trading open
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%?
Trading open
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?
Trading open
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
Trading open
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%?
Market estimate / Yes
0.6%
7 days+0.6 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 13, 2026 — Oct 19, 2026
READ THIS EVENT
What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 0.6%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%?
Yes0.6%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.4%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 13, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All selected contracts use the percentage change in IPCA over the 12 months ending in December 2026, as reported in IBGE’s monthly release. The source is IBGE’s December 2026 report; the relevant figure is the Rate value in the Cumulative in the year / 12 Months row, reported to two decimal places. Release is scheduled for January 12, 2027; if the specified month’s data are not released by the time the following month’s data are due, the last available month is used. One contract tests a figure below 3.00%; the others each test their stated range.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
All selected contracts use the percentage change in IPCA over the 12 months ending in December 2026, as reported in IBGE’s monthly release. The source is IBGE’s December 2026 report; the relevant figure is the Rate value in the Cumulative in the year / 12 Months row, reported to two decimal places. Release is scheduled for January 12, 2027; if the specified month’s data are not released by the time the following month’s data are due, the last available month is used. One contract tests a figure below 3.00%; the others each test their stated range.
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Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%?
Yes0.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 13, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All selected contracts use the percentage change in IPCA over the 12 months ending in December 2026, as reported in IBGE’s monthly release. The source is IBGE’s December 2026 report; the relevant figure is the Rate value in the Cumulative in the year / 12 Months row, reported to two decimal places. Release is scheduled for January 12, 2027; if the specified month’s data are not released by the time the following month’s data are due, the last available month is used. One contract tests a figure below 3.00%; the others each test their stated range.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%?
Yes0.2%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 13, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All selected contracts use the percentage change in IPCA over the 12 months ending in December 2026, as reported in IBGE’s monthly release. The source is IBGE’s December 2026 report; the relevant figure is the Rate value in the Cumulative in the year / 12 Months row, reported to two decimal places. Release is scheduled for January 12, 2027; if the specified month’s data are not released by the time the following month’s data are due, the last available month is used. One contract tests a figure below 3.00%; the others each test their stated range.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?
Yes0.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No99.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 13, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All selected contracts use the percentage change in IPCA over the 12 months ending in December 2026, as reported in IBGE’s monthly release. The source is IBGE’s December 2026 report; the relevant figure is the Rate value in the Cumulative in the year / 12 Months row, reported to two decimal places. Release is scheduled for January 12, 2027; if the specified month’s data are not released by the time the following month’s data are due, the last available month is used. One contract tests a figure below 3.00%; the others each test their stated range.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
Yes11.1%Bid/ask midpoint
No88.9%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 13, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All selected contracts use the percentage change in IPCA over the 12 months ending in December 2026, as reported in IBGE’s monthly release. The source is IBGE’s December 2026 report; the relevant figure is the Rate value in the Cumulative in the year / 12 Months row, reported to two decimal places. Release is scheduled for January 12, 2027; if the specified month’s data are not released by the time the following month’s data are due, the last available month is used. One contract tests a figure below 3.00%; the others each test their stated range.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
Yes70.6%Bid/ask midpoint
No29.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 13, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
All selected contracts use the percentage change in IPCA over the 12 months ending in December 2026, as reported in IBGE’s monthly release. The source is IBGE’s December 2026 report; the relevant figure is the Rate value in the Cumulative in the year / 12 Months row, reported to two decimal places. Release is scheduled for January 12, 2027; if the specified month’s data are not released by the time the following month’s data are due, the last available month is used. One contract tests a figure below 3.00%; the others each test their stated range.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
84.5%
+5 pp · 7 days
Event volume $49.6M
Oct 29, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
What Yes and No mean
Conditions of the selected event contracts
Contract question
Yes
No
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%?
Yes if the official figure is below 3.00%.
No if the figure is 3.00% or higher.
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%?
Yes if the official figure is within the stated 3.00% to 3.49% range.
No if the figure does not meet the stated range.
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%?
Yes if the official figure is within the stated 3.50% to 3.99% range.
No if the figure does not meet the stated range.
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?
Yes if the official figure is within the stated 4.00% to 4.49% range.
No if the figure does not meet the stated range.
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
Yes if the official figure is within the stated 4.50% to 4.99% range.
No if the figure does not meet the stated range.
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
Yes if the official figure is within the stated 5.00% to 5.49% range.
No if the figure does not meet the stated range.
Which measure counts
These markets concern the Extended National Consumer Price Index, or IPCA, rather than any inflation measure: they use the percentage change over the 12-month period ending in December 2026, according to the monthly report of Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The official release reports the 12-month figure to two decimal places, and that is the precision used for resolution. The relevant comparison is therefore with that published figure, not an estimate rounded to a different precision.
Where to find the figure and when it counts
The source is IBGE’s December 2026 monthly IPCA report. The rules point to the Period-Rate table, in the Rate column and the Cumulative in the year / 12 Months row. A change to the report format does not by itself disqualify a relevant published figure.
The December 2026 report is currently scheduled for release on January 12, 2027, and resolution takes place upon release of the data. If the specified month’s data have not been released by the date the following month’s data are scheduled, the last available month is used; the market’s end date alone does not determine the result.
How the selected contracts differ
This selection includes one contract for a figure below 3.00% and others for specified bands from 3.00–3.49% through 5.00–5.49%. Yes applies to each contract’s own condition, and No means that condition was not met; the selected contracts’ probabilities should not be added together.
These are selected contracts, not necessarily every outcome in the event. If the published figure does not meet a particular contract’s condition, that contract resolves No, even if the figure falls within another selected range.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If IBGE’s figure for the relevant period were below 3.00%.
Under the rules: That would meet the Yes condition for the below-3.00% contract; it would not by itself mean Yes for contracts with higher ranges.
If: If IBGE’s figure for the relevant period were within the 4.00% to 4.49% range.
Under the rules: That would meet the Yes condition for the 4.00–4.49% contract; each other selected range is judged by its own condition.
