Yes requires the CPI increase over a 12-month period ending in any month of 2026 to exceed the threshold in an official BLS release, using its one-decimal precision. No must await the December report, unless it has not been issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, in which case already available BLS figures determine the outcome.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 5 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
Trading open
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
Trading open
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?
Trading open
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?
Trading open
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
Market estimate / Yes
15.5%
7 days+2.5 pp
30 days-3 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 12, 2026 — Oct 19, 2026
READ THIS EVENT
What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 15.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
Yes15.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No84.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
For each selected threshold, Yes requires CPI to increase strictly above that percentage over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026, using official monthly BLS releases at one-decimal precision. Otherwise, the outcome is No. No must await the December report unless it has not been issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, when available BLS figures are used. Revisions to earlier figures do not count after the December report is issued.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
For each selected threshold, Yes requires CPI to increase strictly above that percentage over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026, using official monthly BLS releases at one-decimal precision. Otherwise, the outcome is No. No must await the December report unless it has not been issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, when available BLS figures are used. Revisions to earlier figures do not count after the December report is issued.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
No
92%
Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
For each selected threshold, Yes requires CPI to increase strictly above that percentage over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026, using official monthly BLS releases at one-decimal precision. Otherwise, the outcome is No. No must await the December report unless it has not been issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, when available BLS figures are used. Revisions to earlier figures do not count after the December report is issued.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
For each selected threshold, Yes requires CPI to increase strictly above that percentage over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026, using official monthly BLS releases at one-decimal precision. Otherwise, the outcome is No. No must await the December report unless it has not been issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, when available BLS figures are used. Revisions to earlier figures do not count after the December report is issued.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
For each selected threshold, Yes requires CPI to increase strictly above that percentage over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026, using official monthly BLS releases at one-decimal precision. Otherwise, the outcome is No. No must await the December report unless it has not been issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, when available BLS figures are used. Revisions to earlier figures do not count after the December report is issued.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Contract deadline · per API: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59:00 AM UTC
For each selected threshold, Yes requires CPI to increase strictly above that percentage over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026, using official monthly BLS releases at one-decimal precision. Otherwise, the outcome is No. No must await the December report unless it has not been issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, when available BLS figures are used. Revisions to earlier figures do not count after the December report is issued.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
87.5%
+4 pp · 7 days
Event volume $46.9M
Oct 29, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
What Yes and No mean
Conditions of the selected event contracts
Contract question
Yes
No
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
An official BLS release shows a CPI increase above 4.5% over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026.
No eligible reading exceeds 4.5%. Await the December report; if it is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, use available BLS figures.
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
An official BLS release shows a CPI increase above 5% over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026.
No eligible reading exceeds 5%. Await the December report; if it is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, use available BLS figures.
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?
An official BLS release shows a CPI increase above 6% over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026.
No eligible reading exceeds 6%. Await the December report; if it is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, use available BLS figures.
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?
An official BLS release shows a CPI increase above 8% over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026.
No eligible reading exceeds 8%. Await the December report; if it is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, use available BLS figures.
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?
An official BLS release shows a CPI increase above 10% over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026.
No eligible reading exceeds 10%. Await the December report; if it is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, use available BLS figures.
What counts as reaching a threshold
The measure is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase over the 12-month period ending in any month of 2026. This is not December inflation alone or a one-month CPI change: one qualifying year-over-year reading above the threshold is enough.
The official monthly BLS release reports this figure to one decimal place, which is the precision used for resolution. The reading must strictly exceed the threshold: equality does not satisfy Yes.
Data source and resolution timing
The source is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official monthly CPI reports for the months of 2026. Resolution takes place upon release of the relevant data, not simply at the end of the calendar year.
If the December 2026 report has not been issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, already available BLS figures are used. Once the December report is issued, revisions to previously released CPI figures do not count.
How the selected thresholds relate
This selection covers five contracts with thresholds of 4.5%, 5%, 6%, 8%, and 10%, not necessarily every market in the event. They share the same test and differ only in their thresholds, so they are not mutually exclusive alternatives.
The thresholds are nested: a reading above a higher threshold also exceeds every lower threshold. Conversely, failure to exceed a lower threshold means no higher threshold was exceeded either.
Conditional reading examples
If a BLS report shows year-over-year CPI above 5% for any month of 2026, it satisfies Yes for both 5% and 4.5%. That alone does not establish a reading above 6%, 8%, or 10%. If the final assessment under the rules instead gives No at 5%, it also implies No at those three higher thresholds.
If no eligible reading exceeds the threshold and the December report has not been issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the contract resolves No using already available BLS figures. A missing December release does not require an indefinite wait.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If at least one 2026 monthly BLS report shows year-over-year CPI above 5%, the Yes condition for the 5% contract is met.
Under the rules: This also satisfies Yes at 4.5%, but does not establish a reading above 6%, 8%, or 10%.
If: If no eligible reading exceeds the threshold and the December 2026 report has not been issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, already available BLS data are used.
Under the rules: The contract resolves No using available BLS figures; there is no requirement to wait indefinitely for the December release.
