Outcomes use the October 2026 one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U in the BLS report, reported to one decimal place. If October figures are not released by the deadline specified in the rules, the figures for the most recent previous month with available data are used.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?
Trading open
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?
Trading open
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?
Trading open
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?
Trading open
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in October?
Trading open
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in October?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?
Market estimate / Yes
13%
7 days—
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 14, 2026 — Oct 20, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 13%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?
Yes13%Bid/ask midpoint
No87%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 11, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The selected contracts resolve using the October 2026 one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U in the BLS report, at one decimal place. One contract covers 0.1% or less; the others require exactly 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% or 0.6%, respectively. Publication is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, with resolution upon release of the data. If release is delayed, the market may remain open until the scheduled time of the next CPI report; if the relevant figures are still unavailable then, the figures for the most recent previous month with available data are used.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in October 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
The selected contracts resolve using the October 2026 one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U in the BLS report, at one decimal place. One contract covers 0.1% or less; the others require exactly 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% or 0.6%, respectively. Publication is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, with resolution upon release of the data. If release is delayed, the market may remain open until the scheduled time of the next CPI report; if the relevant figures are still unavailable then, the figures for the most recent previous month with available data are used.
PolymarketStars does not execute trades. Platform availability and terms are determined by Polymarket.
This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Yes19.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No80.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 11, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The selected contracts resolve using the October 2026 one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U in the BLS report, at one decimal place. One contract covers 0.1% or less; the others require exactly 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% or 0.6%, respectively. Publication is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, with resolution upon release of the data. If release is delayed, the market may remain open until the scheduled time of the next CPI report; if the relevant figures are still unavailable then, the figures for the most recent previous month with available data are used.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in October 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?
Yes36%Bid/ask midpoint
No64%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 11, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The selected contracts resolve using the October 2026 one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U in the BLS report, at one decimal place. One contract covers 0.1% or less; the others require exactly 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% or 0.6%, respectively. Publication is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, with resolution upon release of the data. If release is delayed, the market may remain open until the scheduled time of the next CPI report; if the relevant figures are still unavailable then, the figures for the most recent previous month with available data are used.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in October 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?
Yes24.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No75.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 11, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The selected contracts resolve using the October 2026 one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U in the BLS report, at one decimal place. One contract covers 0.1% or less; the others require exactly 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% or 0.6%, respectively. Publication is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, with resolution upon release of the data. If release is delayed, the market may remain open until the scheduled time of the next CPI report; if the relevant figures are still unavailable then, the figures for the most recent previous month with available data are used.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in October 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in October?
Yes7.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No92.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 11, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The selected contracts resolve using the October 2026 one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U in the BLS report, at one decimal place. One contract covers 0.1% or less; the others require exactly 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% or 0.6%, respectively. Publication is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, with resolution upon release of the data. If release is delayed, the market may remain open until the scheduled time of the next CPI report; if the relevant figures are still unavailable then, the figures for the most recent previous month with available data are used.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in October 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in October?
Yes3.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No96.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Nov 11, 2026, 04:59:00 AM UTC
The selected contracts resolve using the October 2026 one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U in the BLS report, at one decimal place. One contract covers 0.1% or less; the others require exactly 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% or 0.6%, respectively. Publication is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, with resolution upon release of the data. If release is delayed, the market may remain open until the scheduled time of the next CPI report; if the relevant figures are still unavailable then, the figures for the most recent previous month with available data are used.
Original source rules (English)
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in October 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
85.5%
+5 pp · 7 days
Event volume $49.9M
Oct 29, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
What Yes and No mean
Conditions of the selected event contracts
Contract question
Yes
No
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?
The BLS one-month seasonally adjusted CPI-U change, at one decimal place, is 0.1% or less. Use October's figure or the previous-month figure required by the delayed-release exception.
The same figure is greater than 0.1%; the delayed-release exception also applies.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?
The BLS one-month seasonally adjusted CPI-U change is 0.2% at one decimal place. Use October's figure or the previous-month figure required by the delayed-release exception.
The same figure is not 0.2%; the delayed-release exception also applies.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?
The BLS one-month seasonally adjusted CPI-U change is 0.3% at one decimal place. Use October's figure or the previous-month figure required by the delayed-release exception.
The same figure is not 0.3%; the delayed-release exception also applies.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?
The BLS one-month seasonally adjusted CPI-U change is 0.4% at one decimal place. Use October's figure or the previous-month figure required by the delayed-release exception.
The same figure is not 0.4%; the delayed-release exception also applies.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in October?
The BLS one-month seasonally adjusted CPI-U change is 0.5% at one decimal place. Use October's figure or the previous-month figure required by the delayed-release exception.
The same figure is not 0.5%; the delayed-release exception also applies.
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in October?
The BLS one-month seasonally adjusted CPI-U change is 0.6% at one decimal place. Use October's figure or the previous-month figure required by the delayed-release exception.
The same figure is not 0.6%; the delayed-release exception also applies.
Which measure counts
The contracts use the one-month change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, or CPI-U, adjusted for seasonality. This is not the year-over-year inflation rate or a separate core measure: the specified monthly CPI-U figure is decisive.
A threshold versus exact values
The “0.1% or less” contract sets an upper bound, while the other selected contracts require exactly 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.5% or 0.6%. Resolution compares the official BLS figure at one decimal place, not a more detailed calculation.
This explainer covers only the six supplied contracts, not a complete list of markets in the event.
Source, release date and exception
The resolution source is the BLS Consumer Price Index report for October 2026. The rules list its scheduled release as November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET; resolution takes place upon release of the data.
If the relevant figures are not released on the scheduled date, the market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report. If the data are still unavailable then, the figures for the most recent previous month with available data are used. A date passing or trading closing does not itself establish an outcome.
Conditional reading examples
If the BLS reports October's monthly change as 0.1%, the “0.1% or less” contract meets its Yes condition: the published figure falls within that threshold.
If October figures have not been released by the scheduled time of the next CPI report, the latest previous month with available data applies. This means comparing that fallback figure with the contract thresholds, rather than treating a delay as an automatic No.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If the BLS publishes October's monthly change as 0.1%.
Under the rules: This meets Yes for the “0.1% or less” contract because the figure falls within its threshold.
