Who will finish first in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase?
An explanation of six Polymarket contracts covering first place in the league phase, early No resolution, tied points, and cancellation or non-completion.
0 of the 6 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish first in UCL league phase?
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Will Aston Villa finish first in UCL league phase?
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Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?
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Will Manchester City finish first in UCL league phase?
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Will Manchester United finish first in UCL league phase?
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Will Liverpool finish first in UCL league phase?
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Last successful check:
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish first in UCL league phase?
Market estimate / Yes
18.6%
7 days+4.4 pp
30 days—
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 10, 2026 — Oct 17, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will Paris Saint-Germain finish first in UCL league phase?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 18.6%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will Paris Saint-Germain finish first in UCL league phase?
Yes18.6%Bid/ask midpoint
No81.4%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts share the same rules and differ only in the named club. Yes corresponds to that club finishing first in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; No corresponds to not finishing first, including early resolution once first place becomes impossible. Ties on points are ranked using UEFA's official criteria. Cancellation or failure to complete the phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET triggers Other under the rules, although the contracts list only Yes and No; how Other would be applied is not explained. The endDate field specifies 23:59 UTC on the same date, which differs from the time in the rules. Official UEFA information is the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Aston Villa finish first in UCL league phase?
Yes2.4%Bid/ask midpoint
No97.6%
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
All six contracts share the same rules and differ only in the named club. Yes corresponds to that club finishing first in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; No corresponds to not finishing first, including early resolution once first place becomes impossible. Ties on points are ranked using UEFA's official criteria. Cancellation or failure to complete the phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET triggers Other under the rules, although the contracts list only Yes and No; how Other would be applied is not explained. The endDate field specifies 23:59 UTC on the same date, which differs from the time in the rules. Official UEFA information is the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts share the same rules and differ only in the named club. Yes corresponds to that club finishing first in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; No corresponds to not finishing first, including early resolution once first place becomes impossible. Ties on points are ranked using UEFA's official criteria. Cancellation or failure to complete the phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET triggers Other under the rules, although the contracts list only Yes and No; how Other would be applied is not explained. The endDate field specifies 23:59 UTC on the same date, which differs from the time in the rules. Official UEFA information is the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts share the same rules and differ only in the named club. Yes corresponds to that club finishing first in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; No corresponds to not finishing first, including early resolution once first place becomes impossible. Ties on points are ranked using UEFA's official criteria. Cancellation or failure to complete the phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET triggers Other under the rules, although the contracts list only Yes and No; how Other would be applied is not explained. The endDate field specifies 23:59 UTC on the same date, which differs from the time in the rules. Official UEFA information is the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester City finish first in UCL league phase?
Yes3.8%Bid/ask midpoint
No96.2%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts share the same rules and differ only in the named club. Yes corresponds to that club finishing first in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; No corresponds to not finishing first, including early resolution once first place becomes impossible. Ties on points are ranked using UEFA's official criteria. Cancellation or failure to complete the phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET triggers Other under the rules, although the contracts list only Yes and No; how Other would be applied is not explained. The endDate field specifies 23:59 UTC on the same date, which differs from the time in the rules. Official UEFA information is the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will Manchester United finish first in UCL league phase?
Yes1.8%Bid/ask midpoint
No98.3%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts share the same rules and differ only in the named club. Yes corresponds to that club finishing first in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; No corresponds to not finishing first, including early resolution once first place becomes impossible. Ties on points are ranked using UEFA's official criteria. Cancellation or failure to complete the phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET triggers Other under the rules, although the contracts list only Yes and No; how Other would be applied is not explained. The endDate field specifies 23:59 UTC on the same date, which differs from the time in the rules. Official UEFA information is the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Contract deadline · per API: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59:00 PM UTC
All six contracts share the same rules and differ only in the named club. Yes corresponds to that club finishing first in the 2026–27 Champions League league phase; No corresponds to not finishing first, including early resolution once first place becomes impossible. Ties on points are ranked using UEFA's official criteria. Cancellation or failure to complete the phase by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET triggers Other under the rules, although the contracts list only Yes and No; how Other would be applied is not explained. The endDate field specifies 23:59 UTC on the same date, which differs from the time in the rules. Official UEFA information is the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Original source rules (English)
This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
These contracts ask whether a named club will finish first in the league phase of the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League. The question concerns that phase, not winning the tournament as a whole.
Which clubs this selection covers
This explainer covers separate contracts for Paris Saint-Germain, Aston Villa, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool. Their rules are identical; only the club named in the question changes. These are six selected contracts, not a claim to cover every market in the event.
What produces Yes or No
Yes corresponds to the named club finishing first in the league phase; if it does not finish first, the ordinary result is No. The rules also provide for an early No as soon as first place becomes impossible for that club, for example through mathematical elimination. That No does not have to wait until the phase is complete.
If two or more clubs are level on points, their ranking is determined by UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria for the competition. Equal points alone do not mean shared first place for settlement purposes. The supplied rules do not list the individual tie-breakers.
Cancellation, the deadline and the Other ambiguity
If the 2026–27 Champions League league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the rules specify a result of Other. This is a separate exception, not the ordinary No condition.
However, all six contracts list only Yes and No as outcomes. The supplied material does not explain how Other would be applied to these binary contracts. There is also a timing discrepancy: the endDate field specifies February 28, 2027, at 23:59 UTC, while the exception uses 11:59 PM ET. Those timestamps should not be treated as the same instant, and an end date alone is not evidence of resolution.
Which sources determine the result
Official information from UEFA is the primary resolution source. The rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used. The supplied terms name neither a specific alternative source nor a defined list of qualifying news outlets.
