How October Fed rate-decision dissents are counted
Read the October 2026 Fed dissent markets: which votes qualify, how exact counts differ from the four-or-more threshold, and what determines resolution.
These contracts count formally recorded votes against the federal funds rate decision at the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting. Disagreement on other matters is not the test: resolution relies on the committee’s statement, with the rules also providing for a consensus of credible reporting.
CONTRACT STATUS
Market status and results
0 of the 5 covered markets resolved. This section covers the contracts selected for this article.
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?
Trading open
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?
Trading open
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?
Trading open
Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?
Trading open
Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision?
Trading open
Last successful check:
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?
Market estimate / Yes
26.5%
7 days-5.5 pp
30 days-17 pp
Price basis: Bid/ask midpoint
Probability history
Recorded source observations · CLOB price historyOct 12, 2026 — Oct 19, 2026
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What the displayed probability means
Selected question: “Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?”. The “Yes” outcome is priced at 26.5%. This is a market price for that contract, not a guarantee of the result.
What data is displayed
The selected contracts are listed below with their own outcomes, deadline and original rules. Charts use recorded observations only; period changes require comparable historical data.
CONTRACTS
Outcomes
These contracts ask separate questions. Their probabilities must not be added together.
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?
Yes26.5%Bid/ask midpoint
No73.5%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 PM UTC
Only recorded dissents on the federal funds rate decision at the October 27–28, 2026 meeting count. The selected contracts test exact counts of zero, one, two, or three, or a minimum of four. The FOMC statement supplies the resolution evidence, with a consensus of credible reporting also provided for. Resolution can occur once the statement containing the necessary information is published.
Original source rules (English)
The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 PM UTC
Only recorded dissents on the federal funds rate decision at the October 27–28, 2026 meeting count. The selected contracts test exact counts of zero, one, two, or three, or a minimum of four. The FOMC statement supplies the resolution evidence, with a consensus of credible reporting also provided for. Resolution can occur once the statement containing the necessary information is published.
How this question resolves
Editorial summary / translation. Original source rules remain authoritative.
Only recorded dissents on the federal funds rate decision at the October 27–28, 2026 meeting count. The selected contracts test exact counts of zero, one, two, or three, or a minimum of four. The FOMC statement supplies the resolution evidence, with a consensus of credible reporting also provided for. Resolution can occur once the statement containing the necessary information is published.
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This number reflects a source price. It is not a certainty, a personal forecast or an executable offer.
Original source rules (English)
The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 PM UTC
Only recorded dissents on the federal funds rate decision at the October 27–28, 2026 meeting count. The selected contracts test exact counts of zero, one, two, or three, or a minimum of four. The FOMC statement supplies the resolution evidence, with a consensus of credible reporting also provided for. Resolution can occur once the statement containing the necessary information is published.
Original source rules (English)
The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?
Yes19%Bid/ask midpoint
No81%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 PM UTC
Only recorded dissents on the federal funds rate decision at the October 27–28, 2026 meeting count. The selected contracts test exact counts of zero, one, two, or three, or a minimum of four. The FOMC statement supplies the resolution evidence, with a consensus of credible reporting also provided for. Resolution can occur once the statement containing the necessary information is published.
Original source rules (English)
The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision?
Yes5.9%Bid/ask midpoint
No94.1%Bid/ask midpoint
Contract deadline · per API: Oct 28, 2026, 03:59:00 PM UTC
Only recorded dissents on the federal funds rate decision at the October 27–28, 2026 meeting count. The selected contracts test exact counts of zero, one, two, or three, or a minimum of four. The FOMC statement supplies the resolution evidence, with a consensus of credible reporting also provided for. Resolution can occur once the statement containing the necessary information is published.
Original source rules (English)
The October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the October Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
84.5%
+2 pp · 7 days
Event volume $49.6M
Oct 29, 2026
SOURCE SNAPSHOT
PolymarketStars illustration
POLYMARKETSTARS EDITORIALRU / EN
What Yes and No mean
Conditions of the selected event contracts
Contract question
Yes
No
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?
The October meeting records no dissenting votes on the federal funds rate decision.
At least one dissenting vote on that decision is recorded.
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?
The October federal funds rate decision receives exactly one recorded dissent.
That decision receives no dissents or more than one.
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?
The October federal funds rate decision receives exactly two recorded dissents.
The recorded dissent count for that decision is anything other than two.
Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?
The October federal funds rate decision receives exactly three recorded dissents.
The recorded dissent count for that decision is anything other than three.
Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision?
The October federal funds rate decision receives four or more recorded dissents.
That decision receives between zero and three recorded dissents.
The rate vote is the measure
The question concerns the dissent count, not the size of a rate change or the committee’s broader level of disagreement. An objection to statement wording alone does not qualify: the relevant measure is a recorded dissent on the federal funds rate decision.
When the evidence becomes available
The timetable in the rules places the announcement at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 28, 2026, with the Chair’s press conference expected around 2:30 PM. Resolution need not wait for that press conference: publication of the FOMC statement can be sufficient if it contains the necessary information. The rules also provide for a consensus of credible reporting.
The announcement time identifies when information is expected, not how many dissents there are. Likewise, trading closure or the arrival of a listed end date does not establish a confirmed outcome.
Exact counts versus an open-ended threshold
Four of the selected contracts require an exact match: no dissents, one, two, or three. The fifth works differently: four is its minimum, with no upper limit. The table below describes only these selected contracts.
Conditional reading examples
If the statement records two votes against the rate decision, the two-dissent contract would resolve Yes and the one-dissent contract No. The existence of dissent alone is insufficient for Yes: the count must match the question.
If four votes against the rate decision are recorded, that would mean Yes for four or more and No for three. The threshold contract does not require the final count to stop at four.
Reading the conditions: examples
These hypothetical situations illustrate the rules; they do not report actual events.
If: If the FOMC statement records two votes against the federal funds rate decision.
Under the rules: That meets the two-dissent contract’s Yes condition and the one-dissent contract’s No condition.
